Turnbull is stuck between a rump and a hard place

The House of Representatives chamber was empty in Canberra yesterday in a silent and pregnant pause, inviting thoughts about the questions, angst and turmoil that would have erupted had this sitting week not been cancelled. Seldom has an empty room said so much about the state of politics. As debate escalated elsewhere about the federal implications of the Queensland election result, it was plain to see why Malcolm Turnbull was prepared to wear the criticism and escape a week of question time exposure. That is not to excuse the Prime Minister’s decision, but to comprehend it. He would have been bombarded with questions about the LNP failure in Queensland, the impact of One Nation and the state of the Coalition. Mr Turnbull addressed the issues, instead, from Port Kembla. “Everyone is entitled to cast their vote as they see fit,” he said, “but voting for One Nation in the Queensland election has only assisted the Labor Party.” The Prime Minister indicated this would be a strong message at the federal election.

The fracturing of the vote on the conservative side of politics hurt the LNP in Queensland, just as it damaged the Coalition at last year’s federal election and threatens to destroy it at the next. A schism in the Coalition has been exposed in the Queensland response. Attorney-General George Brandis, a Liberal-aligned senator, attacked One Nation. “Flirting with One Nation is poison for either side of politics,” Senator Brandis said. “And my attitude to One Nation is that it has nothing to offer the people of Queensland.” Yet his lower house colleague, the Nationals-aligned George Christensen, apologised to One Nation voters, saying the Coalition must do more for conservative values. “A lot of that rests with the Turnbull government, its leadership and policy,” he tweeted. Yet another MP from the Sunshine State, Liberal-aligned Warren Entsch, reminded Mr Christensen he was part of the Turnbull government. With all of this playing out on the government side, the Labor Party hardly has to raise a finger.

Mr Turnbull hasn’t only dodged parliament but a party room meeting too. Debate over same-sex marriage is under way in the Senate, where differences over the extent of religious protections inflame Coalition tensions. Barnaby Joyce is also conceding the Nationals will “most likely” decide to support Queensland senator Barry O’Sullivan’s bid to force an inquiry into the banking sector, a move which could force an embarrassing policy backflip or risk leaving the government humiliated on the floor of parliament. A volatile series of issues is colliding in a toxic Canberra climate and we haven’t even mentioned the dual citizenship crisis, which will come to a head next week.

The Prime Minister needs to control the agenda — which is more easily said than done — and he needs to satisfy the conservative elements of his party.

Managing parliament, passing same-sex marriage and surviving until Christmas are all challenging enough in the short term. Yet Mr Turnbull and his team need a longer-term plan to hold the Coalition together and arrest the fracturing of the right-of-centre vote.