Trump’s North Korean gambit

It’s unclear whether what Donald Trump maintained was his “very legendary, very historic” third meeting with Kim Jong-un really was the result of no more than a single tweeted invitation to the North Korean despot.

What’s clear is that Mr Trump’s unpredictability and determination not to be constrained by diplomatic conventions has paid off in engaging the oppressive regime in Pyongyang. But that is just the start. There is a long way to go. Mr Trump’s confidence after his first summit with Kim in Singapore a year ago that as soon as he returned to Pyongyang the North Korean ruler would begin the process of denuclearisation has not been realised. So far, as Greg Sheridan pointed out yesterday, “the world has seen not one jot of denuclearisation”.

Kim’s exuberant welcome for Mr Trump as they shook hands at the DMZ — “I never expected to meet you in this place … this has a lot of significance because it means that we want to bring an end to the unpleasant past” — does, however, reflect Mr Trump’s success in interrupting tensions on the Korean peninsula. But for all his boasting, the nuclear threat remains and the challenge for Mr Trump is to use the personal friendship on display at the DMZ to establish exactly what Kim wants and what is deliverable. Much as Mr Trump may want a major foreign policy success as he begins his campaign for a second term, he should be under no illusions about the difficulties that remain. It is clearly important that Mr Trump and Kim agreed to resume formal negotiations. But they remain far apart, with Kim demanding the US ease sanctions before he takes even modest steps towards denuclearisation such as disclosing the location of his nuclear research and test facilities and the precise nature of his nuclear stockpiles.

After Singapore, Mr Trump, seemingly confident North Korea would denuclearise promptly, made the major concession of cancelling annual US military exercises with South Korea. It may be a success for Mr Trump’s unconventional brand of diplomacy that Pyongyang has not engaged in new nuclear tests or tested long-range missiles. But the reality remains that, according to US intelligence, the regime in the past year has produced enough fuel for a half dozen more nuclear weapons. In May it also resumed testing of short-range missiles.

Thanks largely to Mr Trump’s embrace and the legitimacy that has accorded him, Kim has emerged on to the world stage, holding regular summits with leaders including Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. But his brutal regime remains unchanged. Even members of his nuclear negotiating team have disappeared from view, presumed executed. That is the nature of Kim’s regime. The still unexplained disappearance in Pyongyang of the Australian student Alek Sigley arouses understandable concern. In 2017, American student Otto Warmbier died soon after he was returned to the US in a vegetative state, following detention in Pyongyang over a seemingly trivial offence.

Mr Trump must be under no illusions about Kim. Their meeting at the DMZ was rich in symbolism and professions of mutual friendship. It signals hope for real progress. But if the denuclearisation goal is to be achieved, it’s not enough for Mr Trump to court Kim. He will have to keep pressuring him for tangible results.