Trump’s new Riviera plan for Gaza has its problems
Standing alongside Donald Trump in the White House on Wednesday, AEDT, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the US President as a master of “punching holes in conventional thinking”.
His descriptor could not have been more timely or appropriate as Mr Trump, at a joint news conference, presented a series of stunning suggestions about the future of the Middle East, post the Gaza war, that turns decades of longstanding US and Western policy in the region on its head and would leave in tatters prospects for the two-state solution to the crisis that is favoured by the Albanese government.
The nub of Mr Trump’s proposal that war-ravaged Gaza’s entire population of almost two million people should be relocated en masse to neighbouring Jordan, Egypt and other Arab states could not be more astounding.
Even more head-spinning, however, was his matter-of-fact corollary that the US should “take over control of the (“occupy”, he said) Gaza Strip long term” and rebuild it with a view to turning it into “the riviera of the Middle East”.
What to make of Mr Trump’s declared Gazan dream is anyone’s guess.
But while many will see in it hopes for what could be, in effect, the green shoots of a plan for the Middle East similar to the Marshall Plan that rebuilt Europe after World War II, it should also be noted that it tramples notions of sovereignty and goes against Mr Trump’s stated aim to not entangle the United States in other forever wars.
The potential for unintended consequences is great.
As well as the potential for a legal quagmire, it undermines the principled stand taken by the West against China’s stated ambitions in Taiwan and Vladimir Putin’s illegal attempts to occupy neighbouring Ukraine.
These conflicts are mirrored in Mr Trump’s adventurous tariff manoeuvres which undermine what has been a consistent argument by the US and allies, including Australia, in defence of a rules-based order for trade.
That Mr Trump’s suggestion for the relocation of Gaza’s people and a US takeover of the Strip is radical thinking is beyond question.
Many will understandably doubt whether it provides plausible and practical thinking about the future of the Middle East.
But it would be wrong to dismiss it out of hand – as Mr Trump showed when, in 2020, his initial attempts to broker peace deals between Israel and four Arab states that led to the signing of the historic Abraham Accords were dismissed as unachievable pie-in-the sky.
As Greg Sheridan writes on Thursday, every single one of Mr Trump’s deals starts with a good deal of bluster and then moves to something more constructive.
Mr Trump wants peace for Israel, a better future for Palestinians, and more Arab involvement in the solutions to come, Sheridan writes.
Those are good sentiments to start with. And whatever Mr Trump’s policy ideas are, they cannot be more sterile and ineffective than everything that has gone before.
But to make any progress, Mr Trump will need collaboration and support, especially from Jordan and Egypt, the two states that would be key to relocating Gaza’s population.
Right now, that looks unlikely.
The Arab world, publicly at least, has expressed outrage over the prospect of removing Gazans from land they regard as their home. So, too, have even moderate Palestinian leaders. Without their help, Mr Trump’s plan – even if it is just an ambit claim aimed at creating a basis for negotiation – would get nowhere.
During his first term in the White House, he was supportive of Palestinian statehood. But on Wednesday, he would not repeat that support.
“A lot of plans change with time,” he said. “A lot of death has occurred since I left. We are now faced with a situation that is different.”
Nothing better amplifies the yawning gap that now exists between the Trump administration and the Albanese government – especially Foreign Minister Penny Wong, on the Middle East, who has made Palestinian statehood her leitmotiv.
The symbolic significance of Mr Netanyahu being the first foreign leader welcomed to the White House since the start of Mr Trump’s second term cannot be overstated.
The US President’s warm embrace of him leaves no doubt about the extent to which Mr Trump’s return has reinforced the Jewish state after four years of uncertain backing from the Biden administration.
Mr Trump’s determination to reimpose “maximum” sanctions pressure on Tehran and public support for Israel if it decided to launch an attack to prevent Iran getting nuclear weapons is welcome.
So too is his decision to withdraw the US from the UN Human Rights Council and to end funding for the UN Rights and Works Agency.
Mr Trump is providing a wake-up call for institutions that have been prepared to take US funding but work against its interests, and those of allies including Australia.
Australia must share Mr Trump’s support for Israel and vision of a peaceful Middle East.
Mr Trump’s approach, particularly on Gaza, is loaded with risk.
Embracing the tough-guy politics of authoritarian adversaries can unleash a world of unintended consequences. However, it is also clear that “conventional thinking” on the Middle East has failed repeatedly to secure a lasting peace.