Trump’s bleak picture has expectations soaring high

From Republican establishment figures in Washington to progressive analysts across the world, from political enemies to world leaders who may need to negotiate with him, many people have underestimated Donald Trump and his tilt at the US presidency. His official nomination and acceptance as the GOP presidential candidate in Cleveland should finally silence the doubters. Whatever their views of his policies, experience or rhetoric, it is impossible to deny he has sufficient momentum, energy and acumen to win November’s election. The Democrats’ Hillary Clinton, who has lived in the White House as first lady and who has served President Barack Obama as secretary of state, remains the frontrunner. But Mr Trump has had a strong week, exciting his supporters and sending a sharp shiver up the spine of his opponents.

His set-piece speech yesterday was aggressive — even angry — but in it Mr Trump demonstrated that he understood the worries, fears and grievances that troubled American voters. “Together we will lead our party back to the White House, and we will lead our country back to safety, prosperity and peace,” he said. “We will be a country of generosity and warmth, but we will also be a country of law and order.” The Republican nominee focused on law enforcement in a manner we might expect from a city hall candidate or a state politician. He said the convention was occurring at a “moment of crisis” in the nation. “The attacks on our police and the terrorism in our cities threaten our very way of life,” Mr Trump raged. “Any politician who does not grasp this danger is not fit to lead our country.” Many judge his tone as intemperate and there is some truth in the criticism. But Mr Trump senses the distress of mainstream voters at the terror attacks in San Bernardino and Orlando, and at the execution-style killing of police officers, supposedly in retaliation for police shootings of African-Americans. Mr Trump gives vent to frustrations about an apparent lack of national leadership. Mr Obama added his voice to those accusing the police of discrimination, seemingly legitimising the resentment; likewise his criticism of previous US foreign policy has given succour to those who begrudge the US’s global role. Mr Trump is unapologetic, and many voters admire that certitude.

His brash approach and simplistic solutions — “We are going to build a great border wall to stop illegal immigration, to stop the gangs and the violence, and to stop the drugs from pouring into our communities” — have divided the GOP and risk dividing the nation. When vanquished Republican candidate Ted Cruz addressed the convention and failed to endorse Mr Trump he showed how elements of the GOP were wary about their standard-bearer. They resist openly undercutting Mr Trump but keep their distance so they can wipe their hands of a possible electoral defeat. This lack of support could hinder the Republicans’ ability to mobilise ground staff at the climax of the campaign. If Mr Trump wins, it will be by dint of his own irresistible force.

The maverick’s rise has been aided by disenchantment, not only with Mr Obama but also with the Democrats’ nominee. Mrs Clinton is deeply entrenched in the Washington establishment, and her classified email scandal and stewardship of much of Mr Obama’s aimless foreign policy provide easy attack points. “This is the legacy of Hillary Clinton: death, destruction and terrorism and weakness,” said Mr Trump. He brazenly reached out to backers of Mrs Clinton’s defeated leftist rival Bernie Sanders, urging them to back him against free-trade deals.

It is these populist stands — railing against free trade and immigration, criticising NATO, building a wall along the Mexican border — that must worry allies such as Australia. If the US retreats from the world, strategically and economically, global security and prosperity will suffer. While Mr Trump still beats the populist drum there are some signs of nuance: his proposed ban on Muslim immigration has become a suspending of migrants from countries “compromised by terrorism”; he now says NATO has taken a step in the right direction by examining terrorism; and, while pledging tough law enforcement, he says the US will be “considerate and compassionate” to everyone.

In demagogue style, Mr Trump has overstated America’s problems in a bleak speech. Rather than being in crisis, the US is facing a leadership vacuum. If Mr Trump or Mrs Clinton are to capture the imagination and goodwill of voters they will need to offer some optimism and, dare we say it, hope. Voters are not enthused by either of them. Mr Obama has failed to live up to the unrealistically high expectations he set for himself. Mr Trump, too, promises transformation. He intends to “make America great again” — yet it remains, by any fair measure, the great republic of our age. Economically, strategically and diplomatically, the US needs to rebuild its authority and prestige at home and abroad. This task will confront Mrs Clinton or Mr Trump. Just for now, it appears to be an open contest.