Trump notches wins with America First strategy

Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s unexpected offer of a highly significant olive branch on tariffs suggests that Donald Trump’s unconventional and improvisational conduct of US foreign policy, while much derided, may be working. As maddening as that prospect will be for hyperventilating Trump haters, North Korean despot Kim Jong-un’s sudden change of heart in not only agreeing to meet Mr Trump but also saying he is willing to talk about denuclearisation also suggests the US President’s unique brand of threats and tweeted bluster is striking the right note — or, at least, starting to deliver results. There is a long way to go. It would be premature to draw absolute conclusions from the apparent changes of heart in Beijing and Pyongyang. Much will depend on talks and protracted negotiations that will likely play out across years rather than months. And along the way there are other daunting challenges looming for Mr Trump — but he has some wins.

Nothing is ever certain about Mr Trump. What is clear is that the speed with which Mr Xi has responded to a Trump tweet and other tough action is a positive sign that has knocked the wind out of the sails of the doomsayers who insist the US President is leading the world headlong into a potentially devastating trade war with China. Litigating his argument that China has been “relentlessly protectionist” since joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001, Mr Trump focused on the stark reality that Chinese tariffs on American cars are 10 times higher than US tariffs on Chinese cars. “When a car is sent to the US from China, there is a tariff to be paid of 2.5 per cent,” he tweeted. “When a car is sent to China from the US, there is a tariff to be paid of 25 per cent. Does that sound like free or fair trade. No, it sounds like STUPID TRADE — going on for years!”

In what has been interpreted by commentators as a stunning victory for Mr Trump following his threat to impose tariffs worth $194 billion on Chinese goods, Mr Xi, in response, promised sweeping market-opening measures, including a reduction in the 25 per cent tariff on car imports as well as lifting restrictions on foreign investment in Chinese banking and other key areas of the economy. He also promised China would do a far better job in protecting intellectual property put at risk by American and other manufacturers outsourcing their assembly work to China. “China does not seek a trade surplus,” Mr Xi declared. “We have a genuine desire to increase imports and achieve greater balance of international payments under the current account,” he added, providing an assurance that is as great an outcome for Australia’s exporters as it is for America’s.

Kim’s startling backdown after months of threatening to rain down nuclear destruction on the US and allies including Australia is no less remarkable, especially after the abusive, highly personal slanging match with Mr Trump. From repeatedly insisting North Korea would never give up its nuclear weapons, now he is willing to discuss them. Mr Trump’s combination of bluster and military threats appears to have borne significant fruit after years of Barack Obama’s “strategic patience” got nowhere.

Contrary to the carping of his critics and the exponents of stuffed-shirt diplomacy, the developments on China and North Korea suggest Mr Trump has genuine street smarts and instincts when it comes to foreign policy. He must use them on other challenges, especially confronting Russia’s Vladimir Putin over the dangerous alliance Moscow has formed with the murderous Assad regime and Iran in Syria, aimed at undermining US influence in the region. Mr Trump needs to act decisively to forestall the growing threat the Syrian horror is posing to Israel. All his instincts over the Obama administration’s nuclear deal with Iran are being shown to be correct, with the ayatollahs clearly using the lifting of sanctions to create an even greater menace, especially in continuing to demand the destruction of Israel.

It is imperative that Mr Trump continues to build on his early successes on trade, China and North Korea. New polls show he has an approval rating of 48 per cent that would be the envy of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten. But the FBI raid on his personal lawyer Michael Cohen in connection with the payment of $US130,000 to porn star Stormy Daniels in October 2016 shows Mr Trump is heading into extremely dangerous political waters; even though, as The Wall Street Journal says, voters’ response to allegations Mr Trump had an affair with Daniels is “that sounds like Donald Trump, but so what?” Like Bill Clinton when he was enveloped in scandal, Mr Trump’s best bet on the Daniels allegations is to hold fire and concentrate on solid policy achievements. The immediate outlook ahead of the November mid-term elections when Democrats will be looking for the majority they need to impeach him is challenging. His unexpected foreign policy progress, especially on trade, could help him.