Trump exit exposes climate folly

The boast by Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen that Australia has been accepted into the centre of the UN climate change process carries a lot more risk following the re-election of US president-elect Donald Trump. Australia will play a key role at the COP29 meeting in Baku, Azerbaijan, this month, where Mr Bowen will co-chair negotiations for what is known as the New Collective Quantified Goal. In short, this is the process under which climate groups are demanding $US1 trillion ($1.52 trillion) be raised to be distributed as grants to help developing nations decarbonise.

Mr Bowen said the question was not just how much money was needed, but who pays it. As things stand, China, the world’s second-biggest economy, is not obliged to participate because it is still defined as a developing nation. With the US putting itself out of the frame under Mr Trump, the stakes just got a lot higher for those who remain. This fact is no doubt reflected in the rush to cancel attendance at COP29. Among the late cancellations have been Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen. Also absent will be Joe Biden, Germany’s Olaf Scholz, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Canada’s Justin Trudeau and India’s Narendra Modi. China’s Xi Jinping, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Brazil’s Lula da Silva have also elected to skip COP29.

But Mr Bowen has been celebrating the fact that Australia’s role and reputation had been restored. “Our role at COP now is a signal that the international community has acknowledged the massive shift in approach between those who came before us, and our government,” Mr Bowen told a meeting of climate investors in Melbourne last week. “It’s in our geopolitical interest. It’s good to punch above our weight, and I think we are.” he said. The problem is that Australia is building momentum at a time when the US, the world’s biggest economy, is again firmly in retreat. Mr Trump has said he intends to exit the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC. The US briefly left the Paris Agreement under the first Trump presidency after being required to meet extended withdrawal provisions. This time around it will require only 12 months’ notice.

If Mr Trump were to file to quit the Paris Agreement on his first day in office, as he has said he will do, in January 2026 the US would no longer have to submit a national climate action plan to the UN every five years, would not have to report emissions and would have weaker legal responsibilities to provide climate finance to developing countries.

Climate action enthusiasts downplay the significance of a Trump withdrawal from the Paris Agreement because action can still be taken by the various US states. But this misunderstands the UN process in which nations, not sub-national governments, are the state party with the authority and responsibility to report and take action.

This reality is sinking in to delegates at COP29 at a time when Australia is seeking to host a global UN climate conference of its own in two years’ time. The big picture is that world weather bureaus say the climate is still warming, global carbon dioxide emissions are still rising, and China, Indonesia, India and other major economies are still building coal-fired power stations to maintain their growth. Mr Trump has pledged to double down on US oil and gas production for economic and geopolitical ends. The Albanese government’s enthusiasm to lead on climate is out of sync with what is really going on.