Trump at crucial turning point

Donald Trump has set himself up for a “Sophie’s choice”, declaring he would love to see the US economy “opened up and just raring to go by Easter” in two weeks. COVID-19 cases in the US have surged to 70,000, including more than 11,000 on a single day this week, and are fast approaching Italy’s and even China’s grim totals. More than 1000 Americans have died. Leaders of the US medical profession were horrified by the President’s tweet in which he warned, in capitals: “WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF.”

The initial 15 days of national social distancing in the US is due to end on Monday, when the White House will review its strategy. Mr Trump needs to avoid hasty, ill-considered moves that could make matters worse. But he also has reason to worry about the economic fallout of the virus. Last month’s US jobless rate, 3.5 per cent, was the lowest in 50 years. But as much of the economy shuts down, it is heading towards its highest level since the Depression, possibly 20 per cent. Economists expect US GDP to slump by up to 10 per cent in the June quarter.

Conscious of the difficulties of campaigning for re-election in the midst of a deep recession, Mr Trump says Americans need to get back to work: “Our people are full of vim and vigour and energy. They don’t want to be locked into a house or an apartment or some space. It’s not for our country and we are not built that way.”

After copping widespread and heavy criticism, even from supporters, for his ill-considered, dismissive early responses to the virus, Mr Trump now faces the most difficult decisions of his presidency. He will be searching for a balance between protecting the US against surging virus numbers and resuming the commerce and business crucial to getting people back to work and the US economy moving. As Washington correspondent Cameron Stewart wrote on Thursday, if he pushes too hard, too fast, to ease social-distancing guidelines and get people back to work, he risks a massive spike in infections and a death toll that could paralyse and devastate the country.

On the other hand, if he heeds doctors’ advice and opts for “an abundance of caution” for too long, he will be left with an economy caught in a downturn not seen since the Depression. Such an outcome would cause enormous misery and likely kill his re-election prospects, although Joe Biden is struggling to gain traction with attention focused on the virus.

A deep hole in the US economy would undermine its strength in the world. “You don’t have to be an insane conspiracy theorist to think that the balance of relations between Washington and Beijing will be irrevocably changed by the economic response to an epidemic that started in the Chinese heartland,” former Wall Street Journal editor-in-chief Gerard Baker wrote.

The US and its allies stand to pay a high price if Mr Trump gets it wrong.