True cost of lockdowns emerging

The worst fears about the hidden cost of the pandemic response on mental health and youth crisis are being realised. Hospital admissions of youths who have self-harmed are rising alongside the escalating financial cost from tight restrictions on social contact. All of these factors must be taken into consideration as political leaders and parents weigh the difficult decisions on extending vaccinations to children, reopening schools, and the timing of an end to lockdowns and a reopening of state borders. Damon Johnston reports on Saturday that a secret report to the Andrews government shows more than 340 teenagers a week have been admitted to hospital suffering mental health emergencies in Victoria. The six-week average to May 30 is a 57 per cent increase on the corresponding period last year. The 16-page report reveals an average of 156 teens a week were rushed to hospital after self-harming and suffering suicidal thoughts, an 88 per cent increase on last year. The most serious cases, where teens required resuscitation and emergency treatment, surged to a six-weekly average of 37.3 cases to the end of May, an 83 per cent rise on last year and a 162 per cent increase on 2019. While Victoria has experienced the longest period in lockdown, there is no reason to believe the problem with youth at risk is confined to that state.

Wesfarmers chief executive Rob Scott warned of tough times ahead amid the economic and mental health toll taken by lockdowns across the country. Mr Scott said we rapidly were approaching the situation where “the benefits of widespread, prolonged lockdowns don’t outweigh the negative consequences of lockdown”. He said there was a serious social, economic and mental health impact from extended lockdowns, and we are starting to see that.

The economic impact also is becoming much greater and more obvious. It is possible that next week Australia again will be seen to be in a technical recession, with two quarters of negative growth, after revisions downwards to the June quarter data. Meanwhile, the latest estimates are that the Delta outbreak and lockdowns that effectively have closed NSW and Victoria will come at a cost of $41bn to the federal budget. Deloitte Access Economics partner Chris Richardson projected the federal deficit would widen by $41bn in 2021-22 to nearly $150bn, based on Treasury’s forecast for a $107bn underlying cash deficit in the May budget. About one-third of the blowout was accounted for by additional spending and the rest by loss of revenue and higher welfare payments.

The mounting social and economic costs are the backdrop against which decisions must be made about how to bring the nation out of lockdown and back into the bigger world. The Morrison government is sticking to a road map from the Doherty Institute that says it will be possible to lift restrictions when vaccination rates rise to between 70 and 80 per cent. The latest advice from Doherty is that reopening Australia with thousands of Covid-19 cases active in the community will not lead to more deaths over six months than waiting for virus cases to be contained at low numbers.

As vaccination rates increase in the adult population, Scott Morrison announced on Friday that vaccination programs would open for 12-15-year-olds next month. Vaccinating the young is a difficult decision for many parents but the health advice is now in. Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt said Australia’s immunisation expert panel had approved the use of the Pfizer vaccine on 12-15-year-olds. He said all children aged 12 to 15 would be vaccinated this year. So far, 18.4 million Covid-19 injections have been delivered in Australia, with 11.5 million people receiving their first dose.

To reach the benchmark figure of 70 per cent to reopen, another three million Australians will need to get vaccinated. To reach 80 per cent coverage will require a further two million vaccine doses to be delivered. The introduction of social pressures to encourage vaccination appears to be working, with a pronounced increase in demand and drop in hesitancy.

Success on this front underpins the need for a change in emphasis away from total case numbers towards hospital admissions. If handled properly, the transition from lockdown to healthcare management will produce a vastly different nation before the end of the year. Politically, the momentum appears to be shifting back towards the Prime Minister, but with a federal election looming there is still plenty that can go wrong, and Labor premiers and the federal opposition are continuing to hedge their bets.