Tough, steep road to Glasgow

Brinkmanship has been a defining quality of climate change politics throughout the decades-long UN Framework Convention on Climate Change process. The pattern of last-minute compromise has always been at odds with the urgency of the task presented to the popular media. But it underscores the reality that balancing the needs of rich and poor nations and transforming the energy systems that have been central to industrial progress is no easy task. With the Glasgow climate meeting due to start in little more than a week, brinkmanship clearly defines the state of play domestically and across the globe. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is pulling out all stops in a bid to make the Glasgow conference a defining moment, as the Paris meeting was in 2015. He has announced ambitious plans for the gathering, including the ending of fossil fuel use for power generation and transportation and for all nations to increase the level of their ambition to cut greenhouse gas emissions this decade.

The inconvenient truth is action on climate cannot escape the divisions that characterise relations between the world’s big powers across a suite of issues. As things stand, the Glasgow meeting will not be attended by the leaders of most of the biggest emissions nations. President Xi Jinping from China formally has declined an invitation, as has Vladimir Putin from Russia. Among other major emitting developing countries, Brazil won’t send its leader. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be there but he’s likely to say that he will concentrate on poverty alleviation using coal and he wants finance and technology to help.

Among developed nations, Joe Biden, who has made climate change a key pillar of his presidency, is struggling to convert his personal ambition into national action in the US, with domestic coal use rising and his clean electricity Bill stalled in congress. As Paul Kelly writes on Saturday, Mr Johnson has spent the past week talking up Britain’s climate change agenda but talking down expectations about Glasgow. These difficulties provide a useful measure against which to gauge the brinkmanship playing out domestically. Scott Morrison is expected to take a commitment from Australia for a target of net-zero emissions by 2050 to Glasgow after lengthy negotiations with the Nationals. The timetable is for the government to reflect over the weekend on assurances being sought by the Nationals and for the issue to be decided sometime next week. The Nationals are correct to act in what they consider to be the best interests of their rural constituents, just as the Prime Minister must act in what he sees as the broader national interest.

As one of the few nations to consistently meet its climate action pledges, Australia is under no illusions about the size of the challenge being demanded. Microsoft founder Bill Gates has called meeting a net-zero target “the hardest thing humanity’s ever done”. But the momentum in the business and finance community is for change.

There have been big announcements from companies this week, including a pledge by Rio Tinto to spend $10bn to halve its emissions by 2030. Other companies have pledged similar cuts. Their success will determine whether it will be possible for Australia to achieve a net-zero target. The speed of progress will decide how quickly it can happen. But promises cannot be made at any cost. The challenge is to get new technologies that are reliable and cost-competitive with fossil fuels, which are the foundation of our electricity and transport.

The federal government is banking on technological improvements making it possible to achieve a large measure of emissions savings towards the end of the period to 2050. It is criticised by some for not acting more quickly. The challenge is to make new technologies that will work effectively at scale cost-competitive with what is available now. By agreeing a net-zero target, the government will signal that Australia is on board with the global transition. This is sensible policy because it ensures Australia will participate in the fast-paced transformation being imagined. But the government will not solve this issue alone. That will depend on other nations as well as big business, financiers and enthusiastic entrepreneurs delivering on the high ideals they are happy to state in public.