Tough decisions on opening up amid Sydney outbreak

After 18 months of being guided almost entirely by health experts in making major decisions about the pandemic, Scott Morrison and state and territory leaders have made a significant step in taking control of the issue of when to open borders and lift Covid-19 restrictions on business and the economy. The risk assessment and recommendations of the Doherty Institute about what level of national vaccination will be required to prevent a new surge of Covid-19 and a demand on hospitals and intensive care units will be important. The institute is expected to provide advice to the Prime Minister by the end of this month. It will be considered by federal, state and territory governments. But the final decision on the level of vaccination thresholds and lifting of travel and business restrictions will be made by the people’s elected representatives. That makes sense. As Mr Morrison told Dennis Shanahan: “Only government leaders can balance all the needs and risks for both the economy and the health system.” With key decisions to be made by political leaders, they undoubtedly will spark intense community and business debate.

It is understandable that the Doherty study is looking at Australia facing a higher threshold of Covid-19 vaccinations to open up than Britain and the US, given our population’s level of immunity among patients who have recovered from coronavirus. In the US and Britain, where 29 million and 4.3 million people, respectively, have recovered from Covid-19, there are almost 10 per cent and 7 per cent of the population with antibodies despite not being vaccinated. In Australia, with just under 30,000 recovered cases, the antibody level from recovered patients is far smaller. Britain recently had more cases in a single day than Australia had in total, Mr Morrison told Shanahan.

On the positive side, in looking ahead, national cabinet’s decision to trial a two-week home quarantine pilot program for returning vaccinated Australians in South Australia is a welcome step. It is a move along the path to freeing up international borders and movement when safe to do so.

Australia is moving into a new phase of managing Covid-19 as governments look towards opening up and the vaccine rollout escalates to a million jabs a week. But the timetable and process for easing restrictions has been complicated by the outbreak in Sydney. Restrictions and border controls limiting entry to the nation’s largest city will reverberate around the nation. After 44 new cases were announced on Friday, the Sydney lockdown could be extended. And restrictions have tightened, preventing the people of Greater Sydney from venturing farther than 10km from their homes, limiting funerals to 10 people and preventing no more than two people gathering outside.

Given the current geographic limits of the outbreak, there is no justification, however, for excessively harsh, destructive interstate border restrictions against other areas of NSW that are not under lockdown. Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says she is looking “very closely” at reinstating a hard border closure with NSW. Victorian Health Minister Martin Foley has refused to rule out a hard border closure. And West Australian Premier Mark McGowan typically favours a sledgehammer approach. WA already has a hard border with NSW but some people are still allowed in, including returning West Australians who fit a category of exemption called “compassionate grounds”. But Mr McGowan said on Friday that the state was looking at further tightening that category.

The Sydney outbreak must remain the centre of attention until it is brought under control. NSW Health is treating 43 people in hospital, with 10 people in intensive care including one in their 20s and one in their 30s. The situation is creating a difficult balancing act for health authorities and governments. On one hand, the economic, social and mental health fallout of strict lockdowns, like Victoria’s 112-day lockdown last year, on adults and children are well established. On the other hand, while NSW has tried hard to keep its society and economy as open as possible for the benefit of its citizens, Australian Medical Association president Omar Khorshid says NSW began the current lockdown “a little bit too late and the restrictions were not enough”. Of necessity, reinforcement of restrictions in southwest Sydney has been stepped up. But despite a meeting with cultural leaders the night before a police crackdown, local residents believe their area is being targeted unfairly by authorities. It’s a dilemma that is set to continue for some time.