Tories suffer negative landslide

The result of local government elections in England on the eve of the King’s coronation left no doubt about the challenge facing Britain’s ruling Conservatives led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ahead of the general election expected next year. The Conservatives’ loss of 1050 council seats – almost one in three of all they were defending – and control of almost 50 councils was worse than expected and a grim portent. For the first time in 20 years they have fewer local councillors than Labour. Voters are still punishing them for the chaos of the Boris Johnson years and the Liz Truss interregnum. Labour leader Keir Starmer would be wise, however, to temper his claim that the result has put him on an inevitable course to Downing Street.

Extrapolated into what could happen at a general election, it may be that the Conservatives are on 29 per cent and Labour on 36. That equates to a nearly 10 per cent swing to Labour since the Tories won the 2019 general election in a landslide. But, repeated next year in a uniform swing, those numbers still would leave Labour short of a majority in a hung parliament. Significantly, Labour is making its biggest gains in areas that voted for, rather than against, Mr Johnson’s Brexit.

As Greg Sheridan reported last Saturday following his interview with Mr Sunak, there are signs the “competence, common sense and stability” the British leader has shown since taking office in October last year could yet reverse the trend. Conservative MPs must give him the support needed to restore the party’s reputation for good government. They would do further damage to its electoral prospects if they persist with misguided mutterings about a possible return by Mr Johnson or Ms Truss.

Dire though the poll result was for Conservatives, it showed Mr Sunak cannot be written off quite yet. His narrow path to victory has narrowed further, but the steady-hand-on-the-tiller competence he is showing, especially in steering Britain’s post-Covid financial outlook, is helping overcome previous presumptions of electoral annihilation after the upheavals surrounding his two predecessors.