Time for Joe Biden to be realistic

White House leaks suggesting octogenarian Joe Biden will announce his bid for a second term, possibly as soon as Wednesday, should worry US allies no less than Americans. With polls showing even most Democrats are opposed to him being the party’s candidate next year, Mr Biden’s determination to seek the nomination for four more years would be a historic mistake, with potentially dangerous consequences at a time of great global challenges.

Democrats see that; it is a shame Mr Biden and the advisers who cosset and hide him to ensure his public appearances and utterances are as rehearsed and scripted as possible and free of stumbles do not. At 80, Mr Biden is far from alone in trying to ignore the inevitable consequences of the ageing process. Different people age at different rates of decline. But in the full glare of attention he receives daily there is no disguising the fact Mr Biden is well past his prime. After a lifetime in public service, he may not want to give up the presidency. But he needs to be realistic. He may be challenged even meeting the demands of the 19 months of campaigning before the November 2024 election. Were he to win, it is far from certain he would be able to complete another term, ending when he is 86. Before he goes ahead with the widely anticipated announcement, Mr Biden needs to be realistic and take a hard look at himself. Having soundly beaten Donald Trump in 2020, he may believe he can do so again. Polls indicate he could be right. But even if he won, a second term cannot be divorced from deep concerns about the competence of Vice-President Kamala Harris, who would step into his shoes in this term and probably be in the same position if he won a new term. She inspires little confidence.

Democrats and Republicans alike need new blood. They need generational change, not a replay in 2024 of the damaging divisiveness of the Biden-Trump contest in 2020 that continues to befuddle US politics. Both men need to understand that. The US and its allies face greater challenges from adversaries – specifically China and Russia – than at any time since the height of the Cold War. Mr Biden, rightfully, has won praise for the way he has led the Western response to Vladimir Putin’s onslaught against Ukraine. But in launching his invasion, the Russian tyrant’s calculations probably included estimates of Mr Biden as a weak President, well into his dotage. A return by Mr Trump would be viewed as four more years of scandal, chaos and confusion that would also play into Beijing’s and Moscow’s global ambitions. Mr Biden may believe he is the only Democrat who can beat Mr Trump, who looks more likely to be the Republican candidate, given that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s attempts to win the nomination are floundering. Both great US parties need a better presidential choice.