Time for hard questions on defence in a volatile region

Amid rising geopolitical tensions in a world debilitated by the pandemic, it is time for tough questions to be asked about the nation’s self-reliance and ability to defend itself. The warning by Department of Home Affairs secretary ­Michael Pezzullo that the “drums of war” are beating and Australia must be prepared “to send off, yet again, our warriors to fight” has set an ominous tone. Academic John Lee’s penetrating analysis of China’s use of a “magic weapons” narrative to subdue potential opponents also calls for clear-headed analysis of what may lie ahead.

China’s message is calculated to diminish the motivation of regional states, even if they profoundly disagree with China’s behaviour, to resist or counter even the most coercive policies. Australian exporters are paying an economic price for the nation’s refusal to submit to the Chinese Communist Party’s will. But CCP efforts to make an example of Australia are strengthening the resolve of our allies — the US, Britain, Japan, India and others — to pull together as a counterbalance to China’s assertive militarism. Mr Pezzullo’s comments, made in his Anzac Day address to staff, were a warning that we must be prepared to support our allies but also to defend our own interests. This carries with it big questions about defence spending and economic priorities, morality, and the competence of our national leadership.

Unlike in the Cold War, Australia is much closer to the centre of today’s geopolitical tensions. And we must be mindful of the potential for a regional arms race. But we also must remember the lessons of history. A fundamental condition that prevented outright conflict during the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union is equally applicable now: the balance of power. As China struts its latest weaponry, it must have no doubt, as Soviet leaders such as Nikita Khrushchev did in the 1950s and 60s, that the price of instigating conflict would be unpayable. Alliances such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Five Eyes intelligence network and ANZUS Treaty, the bedrock of our security that is 70 years old this year, have never mattered more.

As Mr Pezzullo said, free nations continue to face the “sorrowful challenge” of being “armed, strong and ready for war”. His comments go to the heart of Australia’s defence preparedness, what sort of deterrence the nation could wield against aggressors and what technologies we need to adopt to keep us safe. Steel manufacturing capacity, fuel security and communications systems that were as impregnable to incursion as possible would be a starting point. Have we overlooked too readily what could be a natural advantage in nuclear technology? That argument applies to energy as well as defence. By refusing to properly consider developing a nuclear industry for power or medicine, have we left ourselves short of choices in areas such as nuclear-powered submarines? In the event of a greater proliferation of nuclear capability beyond China and North Korea, at what point would Australia be wise to consider its own nuclear deterrence capability?

These are difficult issues — financially, morally and in terms of the time and manpower involved. Ignoring them as we have for decades, however, is no longer in the national interest. In his 2006 review of nuclear energy, Ziggy Switkowski said Australia could have reactors up and running in 10 years and nuclear power could produce one-third of the nation’s electricity by 2050. In 2016, the South Australian Nuclear Fuel Cycle Royal Commission said it “would be wise to plan now to ensure that nuclear power would be available should it be required”. A federal Senate inquiry in 2019 recommended consideration of nuclear energy for electricity, medicine and non-energy commercial applications. It ruled out nuclear weapons, recommending continued compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The best long-range subs are nuclear-powered, as Greg Sheridan wrote recently. But there is no prospect we could get nuclear subs without a nuclear industry. Hundreds of nuclear-qualified engineers and technicians would be needed to run them.

To date, Australia has been well served by the protection afforded by our alliance with the US. The US has a deep friendship with Australia and a keen strategic interest given its joint facility at Pine Gap and ground stations such as Honeysuckle Creek outside Canberra and Cooby Creek north of Toowoomba. These are an indispensable component of US defence that enable multi-domain operations including its nuclear submarines and bombers. In the event of a war between China and the US over Taiwan we are already on the frontline.

It also needs to be considered that other nations, such as Russia, may use the destabilising effect of events in the Asia-Pacific as cover for their own military actions in other parts of the world. This would leave US capabilities severely tested. As a result, our defence planners and political leaders must be prepared to ask the difficult questions. How are we protected or, more pointedly, how are we protecting ourselves? Can we justify relying on another power to look after us? How confident can we be that, if called on, our allies will be there to help? Would having a nuclear capability make us as a nation more or less vulnerable? Can we balance our long-held position on non-proliferation with a discussion about building a defensive nuclear capability? What are the dangers of a regional arms race that would make the Asia-Pacific more volatile and dangerous? For many people, even the consideration of these issues would be anathema. But we must not lose sight of the fact our defences already rely on the nuclear capability of our greatest ally. In areas of national security our leaders must be prepared to consider all options.

One could make the case, that when it comes to our defence policy, perhaps we have not taken it particularly seriously for some time. We have felt secure that we could depend on the protection of the US. That may well be the case today, but the world has changed in the past 18 months and we need to assess closely how we defend ourselves. In that period China has shown itself to be willing to take punitive economic actions against countries prepared to speak out against it. The pandemic has left deep and debilitating scars across the world, including the US, Europe and India. Australia must be ready for whatever comes next.