Threat in Putin’s African push

Russia’s establishment of its first military base in Africa – at Port Sudan, on the highly strategic Red Sea, one of the world’s busiest waterways – should add significantly to Western concern about Vladimir Putin’s drive to regain the influence the former Soviet Union had around the world.

Disclosure of the Russian President’s ominous deal for the base with Sudan’s ruling military junta coincides with the start in the far south of the Indian Ocean of no less highly strategic joint naval exercises off Cape Town involving Russian and Chinese warships operating with South African Navy vessels. South African newspapers on Monday spoke of “Western governments becoming increasingly agitated about the Mosi II exercises”, especially because the exercises appear to have been timed specifically to coincide with the first anniversary of Mr Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

Like most African regimes, South Africa’s corrupt African National Congress government has failed to make the slightest criticism of the Russian tyrant’s onslaught against Ukraine. Instead, it has trashed its claims to non-alignment and joined in naval exercises designed to be a high-profile demonstration of political and military unity – and a snub to the West – that coincides with the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine. Nothing better highlights the determination of Moscow and Beijing – working hand in glove with South Africa – to gain influence across the Indian Ocean. China has long sought such influence. But not since the Soviet Union’s 1991 collapse has Russia been a major player on the African continent. Now, however, Mr Putin is clearly exploiting the influence Russia, as the Soviet Union, gained within the leadership of the African National Congress.

The Times reported on Monday that Moscow is planning to garrison troops as well as station four warships at the new base in Sudan which, “could allow Russia to throttle shipping trade should it ever go to war with the West”. That is a warning of looming trouble for the West that must be heeded. It sums up the likely consequences of the brazen moves the Russian despot is making in Africa and the profound challenge they pose, particularly to countries such as Australia that have a critical stake in the security of the Indian Ocean and its shipping lanes. After visiting Sudan, Mali and other African states last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declared smugly that the West’s attempts to isolate Russia over Ukraine had failed. That is a perception the West must not let gain momentum as it seeks to ensure Mr Putin’s isolation and defeat in Ukraine.