The political divisions over Covid will leave lasting scars

Scott Morrison is losing the politics of Covid-19 to partisan theatrics, and the nation will pay a heavy price for the fracture in federal-state relations the pandemic response has wrought. Border closures and lockdowns set the tone. But the pandemic has amplified a political culture of ill-discipline in which premiers set the rules and the Morrison government pays the bill. Any attempts to stand against demands from premiers for compensation to lessen the impact of state choices invites peril at the polls. Even before the latest lockdowns in Greater Sydney and Melbourne, the federal government was looking increasingly powerless to set the agenda and plot a co-operative path for the nation’s reopening.

Premiers may agree in national cabinet but they have shown no resistance to breaking agreements if it suits them. Opinion surveys back up the results of state elections in Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania that the public is willing to praise and reward state leaders for keeping them safe. For the federal government, which has performed well nurturing and rekindling the economy, luck is running out.

The latest Newspoll results show the federal Coalition has slumped to its lowest electoral position this term with popular support for the Coalition and Labor deadlocked at 39 per cent. The Prime Minister’s net approval rating is back to its lowest level since the 2019-20 summer bushfire crisis. The political incentive for state leaders in Victoria, Western Australia and Queensland in particular is to maximise Mr Morrison’s discomfort. Any protection offered by the deft handling of the pandemic to date by NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has been lost in the current outbreak and lockdown in Greater Sydney.

We have no illusions; politics is a hard-fought occupation and the enduring strength of democracy lies in the existence of a strong opposition able to hold governments to account. The Covid response, however, has exposed the extent to which the current crop of politicians seems unable to put aside partisanship for the greater good. To be fair, the situation is worse for the Morrison government because of its own perceived incompetence. The areas where the federal government is most responsible, the vaccine rollout and quarantine, have been mired in disappointment. There may be reasons for this. States insisted they retain control of hotel quarantine from the outset and government choices on vaccines have been characterised by bad luck. Perceptions of incompetence open the door to political bickering, but a lack of coherent strategy across party lines breeds a deeper malaise.

Confirmation of this is on display in southwest Sydney, where lockdowns have been allowed to become a racial issue. The argument that lockdowns in southwest Sydney are in any way racially motivated is factually incoherent. For evidence you need look no further than the extended lockdown on Sydney’s northern beaches, a predominantly Anglo community. The NSW government may have bungled the politics by not acting with more urgency when the latest outbreak emerged in Bondi, but for politicians to imply a racial motive for current events in Liverpool is depressing.

Equally depressing is the opportunistic politics played by Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews over the economic support package negotiated with NSW for the extended lockdown. Mr Andrews misrepresented the facts of the support, which would not have been triggered by Victoria’s lockdown last month that ended before the additional measures would have been due. He then used the divisions created with Canberra to insist on more generous treatment when he again put his citizens under effective house arrest. Mr Morrison had little option but to comply.

It is not only the future of the Morrison government that is at stake. For Australia and its people, the politicisation of the Covid-19 response is bad for society. If not brought quickly under control, cracks now appearing in the federation will be difficult to fix. The real threat will come when we must decide at what rate of vaccination things can be opened up to normal. The evidence is that whatever level is set, some states will refuse to accept it and the federal government will be powerless to act.

To get back on track Mr Morrison should consider the criticisms of former Labor leader Bill Shorten that the prime minister had not been focused on the things he should have been focused on. Mr Morrison is suffering a death by a thousand cuts because he is stranded in the middle of a national cabinet process he cannot control. The federal government has a good record on steering the economic bounce-back from the national lockdown and getting unemployment quickly to the ambitious target of below 5 per cent. Mr Morrison must identify the fundamental things that must be done to get the nation safely through the pandemic danger zone and open to the rest of the world, concentrate on them and make sure he delivers.