Tensions over Taiwan ratchet up

Taiwan’s decision to extend mandatory military service for male citizens from four months to a full year in 2024 reflects increasing concerns about a potential Chinese attack. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen made the announcement on Tuesday after China’s People’s Liberation Army sent a swarm of 71 warplanes and seven warships across the Taiwan Strait in a 24-hour display of force from early on Christmas Day and into the early hours of Monday. Chinese military said the action was a response to unspecified “collusion and provocation by the US and Taiwan”.

A day earlier, Joe Biden had signed a defence policy bill authorising up to $US10bn ($14.89bn) across five years to finance sales of weaponry and military equipment to Taiwan, as well as to provide training and other security assistance to the island. The Chinese foreign ministry complained the US legislation was “hyping up the Chinese threat narrative … blatantly interfering in China’s international affairs” and attacking the Chinese Communist Party. “This is a serious political provocation against China,” the Chinese foreign ministry said. “No external interference in China’s internal affairs will be tolerated. The US needs to stop seeking to use Taiwan to contain China, stop fudging, distorting and hollowing out the one-China principle, and stop moving further down the wrong and dangerous path.”

Beijing’s fundamental mistake over Taiwan is in trying to portray itself as the wronged party when everything it does shows otherwise. On the face of it, Sunday’s display of force seemed pointless. In military terms, its excursion across the Taiwan Strait amounted to no more than previous attempts by Beijing to intimidate Taipei. These did nothing tangible to change the situation, beyond alerting Taiwan, the US, Japan, Australia and other allies of the need to prepare for the worst in regard to China. The latest exhibition of force will not persuade US legislators to back away from their support for Taiwan. To the contrary, it will reinforce their determination to provide Taipei with the backing it needs.

Taiwan is also intent on helping itself. The conscription announcement, which would have been regarded as politically unpalatable, reflects increasing concerns among the government and the population and intensifying competition between Washington and Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping has made taking control of Taiwan by force a central plank of his campaign to achieve national rejuvenation.

Extending conscription was “an extremely difficult decision”, Ms Tsai said on Tuesday. “Peace depends on national defence, and national defence depends on the whole population.” As a sweetener, the Taiwanese leader said conscript pay, currently the equivalent of $US212 a month, would be increased to close to minimum wage, which is set to rise to $US856 a month in 2024. Training will be intensified and expanded to involve instruction on the use of Javelin antitank missiles and drones.

US military analysts have long urged Taipei to consider extending conscription as a contingency in the event of a Chinese invasion. Discussions accelerated following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, seen by some in Taiwan as a wake-up call. The White House welcomed the extension of conscription, which a spokesperson said “underscores Taiwan’s commitment to self-defence and strengthens deterrence”. About 80,000 Taiwanese are conscripted each year. After training, they join the island’s two million reservists. Taiwan maintains an army of 180,000 soldiers, compared with the Chinese military’s two million.