Tense islands in the virus stream, that is what we are

On May 8, Scott Morrison handed over responsibility for reopening Australia’s economy to eight premiers and chief ministers. It wasn’t hand-wringing by the Prime Minister but a passing of the baton and microphone to states and territories for implementing the three-stage recovery plan shaped by national cabinet. That framework for easing restrictions would see a COVID-safe economy operating by July, with a goal of restoring 850,000 jobs, according to Treasury estimates. By then, the full boost to gross domestic product would be $9.4bn a month. Given myriad differences in restrictions — some states had closed their borders, schools were on a range of timetables — and rates of new infections, there is no way Canberra can dictate the big thaw. But it now means state and territory leaders own their settings and, like it or not, are politically responsible for the financial hardships that flow from delays.

Ultra-cautious Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is exercising her discretion in keeping the state’s border closed. On Monday, Ms Palaszczuk said “things would look more positive towards September”. What? In any case, she added, the ultimate decision belonged to Queensland’s Chief Health Officer, Jeannette Young. According to Dr Young the southern states need to “get all their problems sorted” first. July is the “absolute earliest” when interstate travel may be permitted; she wants to see “no new cases for two incubation periods”. An incubation period for coronavirus is typically 14 days but can be as short as five. That’s a tall, though not impossible, order. But it puts a clamp on holiday travel for cashed-up southerners and worker mobility, and digs a deeper hole for Queensland’s tourism and hospitality sector, already reeling from the ban on foreign visitors to Australia.

On Friday, Mr Morrison said that as borders fell internally and Australians holidayed at home, tourism would get back on its feet. National cabinet was told we are “net tourism importers”. Australians spend $20bn more overseas than visitors spend here. Now the travel dollar is up for grabs for local operators, a key employer in regional areas. Shut-outs by Queensland and Western Australia have drawn sharp criticism from state and business leaders. On Sunday, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said interstate travel would be critical in boosting trade and delivering a flexible workforce. “The key to our economic success will be to improve our supply chains and our manufacturing base,” she said, urging the reopening of state borders as soon as possible. After successfully flattening the curve, and building up capacity for testing, tracing and intensive care units across several months, it seems daft to continue with such harsh restrictions beyond the agreed July target.

Still, the alacrity with which Sydneysiders over the weekend flicked the switch to “up close and personal” will have medical officials on edge and leave other states wary of visitors. WA Premier Mark McGowan has no time frame on when his border closure will be lifted but he is fearful of continuing community transmission in the largest two states. “Our isolation is our greatest advantage,” he said. Is this exclusion even legal? Constitutional law experts highlight sections 92 and 117 of our founding document. The first section mandates “trade, commerce, and intercourse among the states, whether by means of internal carriage or ocean navigation, shall be absolutely free”. Yet there is strong opinion a state can take reasonable measures during a health emergency, such as a pandemic, to protect its citizens. It happened a century ago with the Spanish flu.

But peer-group and commercial pressure will intensify on these self-declared islands and their cautious rulers to open up. So, too, will the fiscal cost, as state tax bases are devastated and federal funding reaches its limits. National companies have every right to expect free movement of people and goods. Stage three of the road map to recovery sees a resumption of all interstate travel and consideration of a return of foreign students and a “trans-Tasman bubble”. How odd would it be, as Ms Berejiklian noted, to be allowed to travel from Sydney to Auckland but not to Perth or Brisbane. As Treasury outlined, that third stage of reopening would see another 67,000 jobs restored to Queensland and 32,000 jobs to WA. As well as managing intermittent virus outbreaks, getting Australians back to work and on the move is what success looks like. We don’t need more islands.