Tasmanians need stability, growth

There are many reasons Tasmanians may want to send a protest message to Peter Gutwein and the governing Liberals. To name a few: a health system under severe stress, a housing shortage, and a failure to deliver sufficient infrastructure quickly enough to keep pace with population growth and urban sprawl. It is also true that several credible independents are running in the state election on Saturday, most notably in the seat of Clark where Glenorchy mayor Kristie Johnston traditionally has picked up Labor votes and where former Liberal Sue Hickey has broad appeal across the political spectrum. However, the danger of a protest vote, particularly under Tasmania’s Hare-Clark electoral system, is a hung parliament and instability.

Minority governments have had their successes. Tony Rundle’s response to the Port Arthur massacre, David Bartlett’s improvements to transparency, and Lara Giddings’s attempts at reining in the state budget all spring to mind. They inevitably end badly, though, and the instability dents business confidence which, in turn, can stymie investment and jobs. When Tasmania — once the country’s economic basket case — is leading the nation on many economic indicators, this would be tragic.

The Liberals, initially under Will Hodgman and then under Mr Gutwein, who had been Mr Hodgman’s treasurer, have provided responsible budget management and successfully created a climate conducive to private investment. CommSec’s April State of the States report names Tasmania as having the “best performing economy” of all states and territories for the fifth quarter in a row. It leads other states in population growth, equipment investment and dwelling starts, and was second best for retail spending and construction. At the same time, the state is “one of the safest places on the planet” in terms of COVID-19, as Mr Gutwein points out. Tasmania suffered an early outbreak centred on its northwest coast but responded quickly. Mr Gutwein’s propensity to shut borders and restrict movements has taken a heavy toll on some businesses. But his government has matched this approach with the strongest per capita stimulus and support package in the country.

Tasmanians have a right to be grumpy with Mr Gutwein for calling an early election, almost a year before it is due, under a flimsy pretence. After effectively ejecting Ms Hickey from the Liberal Party, the Premier then claimed to need an early poll to restore majority government. Ms Hickey’s departure to the crossbench reduced the Liberals to 12 of 25 House of Assembly seats. However, not only had Ms Hickey pledged supply and confidence to the party that rejected her, but so had independent MP Madeleine Ogilvie. What’s more, as Matthew Denholm revealed in this newspaper, there had long been talks between Ms Ogilvie and the Liberals about her joining its ranks. That is exactly what happened as soon as the poll was called and Ms Ogilvie announced she was running again — as a Liberal. To most dispassionate observers, it seems as though Ms Hickey was used as an excuse to go to the polls early, to capitalise on Mr Gutwein’s strong approval ratings in the wake of his popular management of the pandemic response.

Nevertheless, voters must move beyond this sleight of hand. Their vote must be about the state’s future, not lingering anger at being pushed prematurely to the ballot box. Labor leader Rebecca White has won admiration for her recovery from a disastrous first two weeks of campaigning. Labor looked to be on the ropes after the ALP national executive overruled local Left powerbrokers on a key preselection. ALP state president Ben McGregor then quit as a candidate over “vulgar” text messages, threatening to sue Ms White for alleged slander. However remarkable Ms White’s comeback, most polls and pundits suggest Labor is coming from too far behind to be a realistic prospect of forming majority government. Its ongoing internal problems — hard Left powerbrokers seemingly at war with the leader — raise serious doubts about whether it is ready to return to government.