Tasmania poll a test of leadership

Tasmanians will go the polls on May 1 after Liberal Premier Peter Gutwein called a snap election. The intention is doubtless to follow the success of Labor premiers Mark McGowan (Western Australia), and Annastacia Palaszczuk (Queensland) in capitalising on public support for state governments’ handling of the pandemic. Mr Gutwein took the reins from Will Hodgman just before the crisis struck, responding with closed borders, lockdowns and big-spending support and stimulus programs. His handling of the COVID-19 emergency quickly won over Tasmanians of all political persuasions, with the exception of some in tourism and hospitality who saw their livelihoods and businesses pushed to the brink. Generally, Mr Gutwein has proven himself a man for the times. His flaws — a sometimes gruff, no-nonsense approach and perceived lack of charisma — might be fatal in a leader in normal times. However, in the current crisis they became instant strengths. Tasmanians unsure about a new premier, thrust upon them by his predecessor’s unexpected retirement from politics, were reassured as the world changed around them. Mr Gutwein is gambling on that admiration — as in Queensland and more recently WA — translating to support at the ballot box.

The most recent public polling, by local pollsters EMRS last month, suggests it will, with the Liberals on 52 per cent to Labor’s 27 per cent and the Greens’ 14 per cent. However, even if this result were reflected on polling day, there is no guarantee it would secure the Liberals a third term of majority government (following wins in 2014 and 2018). In Tasmania’s Hare-Clark proportional representation electoral system, five MPs are elected to each of the five multi-member electorates, which mirror the federal divisions of the same names. It’s worth remembering that at the March 3, 2018, state election, the Liberals won 50.3 per cent of the statewide vote yet managed to secure a majority by only the narrowest margin: one seat. This wafer-thin majority dissolved this week when Speaker Sue Hickey — a maverick Liberal moderate with a record of crossing the floor and a penchant for pot shots –— quit the party, becoming an independent. Some accuse Mr Gutwein of orchestrating the break-up to justify an early election. However, Ms Hickey had precipitated it by publicly flagging her intention to seek preselection, requiring a response from Mr Gutwein and the party.

The Liberals are confident of picking up at least one seat, all that is needed to return to the status quo of a single-seat majority, and they believe they potentially can add one or two more. Whether they succeed may come down to the strength of the candidates to be chosen in each electorate. (Parties field a team of five.) Mr Gutwein and his team will campaign hard on their coronavirus and economic records and argue only they have a chance of securing majority government; a by-word in many minds for jobs and prosperity. Labor’s Rebecca White will seize on the government’s perceived weaknesses: the ongoing shortcomings of public hospitals, the lack of affordable housing and any rise in unemployment sparked by the end of JobKeeper.