Taiwan’s message to the world

Events in Hong Kong were pivotal to the Taiwanese election result, which is why Beijing’s leaders would be unwise to ignore the clear rebuff delivered to them by voters in re-electing pro-independence President Tsai Ing-wen in a record-breaking landslide. Ms Tsai’s main challenger in the election in one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies, Han Kuo-yu of the KMT Kuomintang party, ran on a platform of much closer ties with Beijing. The choice between him and the Democratic Progressive Party’s Ms Tsai, who favours continuation of the status quo of de facto independence, was seen broadly as a contest between being “pro-China” or “pro-Taiwan.” The result was emphatic, with voters in a fully free election rejecting Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision of a Greater China united under Beijing’s authoritarian leadership. Nor did they warm to its “one country, two systems” policy, in which China wants to include Taiwan alongside Hong Kong and Macau.

Ms Tsai, whose re-election prospects looked hopeless before the Hong Kong crisis, was swept back into office with 57 per cent of the vote against 38 per cent for Mr Han. Her tally was a record 8.2 million votes, 1.3 million more than in 2016 and a record for any presidential candidate since Taiwan, a nation of 23 million, began holding direct elections in 1996. Nothing could better highlight the impact within Chinese communities of Beijing’s handling of the pro-democracy uprising in Hong Kong and its failure to intimidate and cajole Taiwan back into Beijing’s fold.

Ms Tsai won by rejecting the idea of Taiwan ever being part of one country, two systems. She faced down Mr Xi’s specifically Taiwan-targeted threats of 2019 when he warned that Beijing had not ruled out using force to bring Taiwan under its authority.

In the election run-up, Beijing brazenly sought to influence voters against Ms Tsai, twice sailing its powerful new aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait to demonstrate its military prowess. It also tried strong-arming vulnerable Pacific nations into recanting diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, and halting travel to Taiwan by Chinese tourists in an attempt to starve the economy.

Ms Tsai’s victory showed the futility of Beijing’s stance. She campaigned on Hong Kong, highlighting it as an ominous manifestation of what unification on Chinese Communist Party terms would mean for Taiwan. “Young people in Hong Kong have used their lives and blood and tears to show us that one country, two systems is not possible,” she said. Taiwan had “shown the world how much we cherish our free democratic way of life … when our sovereignty and democracy are threatened, the Taiwanese will shout our determination even more loudly back”. Taiwan, as the Trump administration said, was “a shining example for countries that strive for democracy, prosperity and a better path for their people”.