Syria’s Middle East ‘tectonic shift’

Islamist rebels seizing control of Aleppo have reignited Syria’s civil war and highlighted grave difficulties facing Vladimir Putin and his “axis of evil” Syrian government and Iranian partners following Israel’s effective destruction of Hezbollah. It took the axis partners more than four years and one of modern history’s most brutal massacres of civilians – the siege of Aleppo in which thousands died – to gain control in 2016 of one of the Middle East’s most fabled cities. Doing so was supposed to secure power for Putin’s closest regional ally, President Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus and stabilise Syria as a mainstay of Russian and Iranian strategic advantage.

That was a grave miscalculation. Weekend reports show it took the Islamist militia coalition Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has Turkish backing, only three days to take Aleppo and put to flight Assad government and Russian and Iranian fellow fighters.

Washington Institute for Near East Policy senior fellow Andrew Tabler told The Wall Street Journal the rebels’ sudden sweeping success amounted to a “tectonic shift” for the Middle East at a critical time following Israel’s successful bludgeoning of Hezbollah and the reverses the Jewish state had inflicted on Hamas and Yemen’s Houthi terrorists. Hezbollah forces have long played a significant role in sustaining the Assad regime in Syria but are no longer in a position to do so.

The rebels’ recapture of Aleppo – including parts of the city the Syrian army has never surrendered before – is the result of new wars beyond Syria’s borders. Brookings Institution Turkey specialist Asli Aydintasbas said: “Russia is weakened (because of the heavy toll of its war against Ukraine), Iran is weakened (after its failures were exposed by Israel), Hezbollah is beaten – and all this has created an enormous opportunity for Turkey.” There should be no sympathy for Syrian despot Assad, who returned last week from seeing Mr Putin in Moscow.

Uncertainty surrounds the rebel coalition that is listed by the US and the UN as a terrorist organisation and is led by Mohammed al-Jolani, who reportedly is linked to al-Qa’ida but not to Islamic State. The Times reports Jolani “has waged a years-long public relations campaign to paint himself as a relative moderate and has called for his forces to respect Christians and other minorities”. Satisfying as it is to see the strategies of Putin and Iran’s ayatollahs in deep strife in Syria, it would be disastrous if what emerged were a replay of the 2011-21 civil war in which an estimated 600,000 people were killed and six million fled abroad. For Israel and its allies, the tectonic shift is one that should be used to gain further advantage over the axis of evil led by Putin and Iran.