Syrian regime must prove itself

Swift action by Syria’s formerly al-Qa’ida-aligned rebels to arrest Islamist “foreign fighters” for controversially burning down a Christmas tree in the main square of Suqaylabiyah, a Christian-majority town, is hopefully a sign they mean it when they say they will protect the rights and freedoms of religious and ethnic minorities. But they will have to do much more if they want the world to accept that their Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group really has turned its back on its longstanding Osama bin Laden/Salafist-jihadist ideology and is deserving of Western support. Before the emergence of the Islamic State caliphate, Christians made up 10 per cent of Syria’s population. With at least six million Syrians having fled, many flooding Europe, that is down to barely 2 per cent. But their fate remains central to Syria’s role as a crucial element in the Middle East crisis.

HTS’s past, as it scrambles to present itself as a force for moderation in the Middle East, is not encouraging.

Before breaking out and seizing Damascus, the HTS rebels ran Syria’s Idlib province, bordering Turkey. It is an indication of their Islamist extremism, despite their attempts to present themselves otherwise, that Christian clergy in the province are not allowed outdoors wearing clothes that make them recognisable as such. Crosses have been removed from church buildings. In the city of Hama last week, gunmen opened fire on a Greek Orthodox Church and smashed headstones in a cemetery. That is not a promising pointer to what could happen in Damascus, despite HTS leaders seeking to present as moderates who have eschewed their previous al-Qa’ida/ jihadist affiliations.

Concern about Syria’s Christian minority should be matched by concern for Syria’s staunchly pro-Western Kurds. Ominously, Wednesday’s announcement by the new rebel leadership in Damascus – that most of Syria’s rebel groups have agreed to disband and integrate their forces under the new regime’s defence ministry – specifically excluded the US-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which controls swathes of Syria’s northeast and is seen by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as his enemy. The Kurdish forces’ exclusion raises serious questions about the extent to which the new rebel leadership in Damascus is in thrall to Mr Erdogan’s own doubtlessly self-serving game plan for Syria, including his hope of a rebel takeover that will actively help him eliminate what he sees as Ankara’s deadliest enemy – the People’s Protection Units (YPG) that are the main component of the SDF and are affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been waging a decades-long insurgency inside Turkey.

Caution is needed about HTS and leader Ahmed al-Sharaa’s purported conversion to what they are presenting as moderation after years of adherence to murderous jihadist terrorism against Christian and other minorities that continues to see Mr Sharaa and HTS black-listed as a terrorist organisation by the US, UK, EU and UN.

The 2015 refugee crisis that saw more than 1.3 million Syrians flee the mayhem and seek refuge mainly in Europe leaves no doubt about the overwhelming strategic importance of a country that is vital to what hopes there are for peace in the Middle East.

The collapse of the despicable Assad regime could not be more welcome. In dealing with the new regime in Damascus, it is imperative that the West ensures that the replacement for the monstrous Assad dictatorship is not another basically terrorist mob that retains fealty to al-Qa’ida.