Sunak over-delivers on Brexit

Rarely, anywhere in the world, do political leaders win praise for under-promising and over-delivering. It doesn’t happen often. That, however, is what is happening to British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak following his remarkable achievement in negotiating an agreed solution to what previously appeared to be an unbridgeable gap between London and Brussels over Northern Ireland’s place in the 2020 Brexit deal. Barely four months since Mr Sunak entered Downing Street, his announcement on Monday of the new Windsor Framework on the highly contentious issue of Northern Ireland’s trading status post-Brexit could not be more significant. It holds out the promise of finally bringing an end to the feud that had poisoned relations between the two sides. The animosity threatened not only the Brexit deal but also the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland.

A separate Northern Ireland protocol agreed by prime minister Boris Johnson in 2020 as part of Brexit recognised the province’s unique situation as a neighbour that shared common borders with Ireland, an EU member. The protocol kept Northern Ireland in the European single market for physical goods and the province was subjected to customs rules different to those of the rest of Britain. But contrary to assurances given by Mr Johnson at the time, the protocol resulted in such a hard border in the Irish Sea and trading penalties that it enraged archly pro-UK unionists in Belfast and hardline Eurosceptics in London furious that the province was being treated so differently to the rest of the UK.

After having defied, first, prime minister Theresa May’s muddled attempts at achieving Brexit, then the frenzied ups and downs of Mr Johnson’s chaotic administration, plus Liz Truss’s ill-starred 44-day interregnum in Downing Street, the Northern Ireland issue seems to have finally found a solution with the announcement of the agreement between Mr Sunak and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. The Windsor Framework means goods from the rest of Britain bound for Northern Ireland will no longer face onerous customs scrutiny. Everything destined for Belfast will be fast-tracked via a “green lane” with virtually no checks. Foods and medicines available in Britain will be sold in the province.

That Mr Sunak’s framework agreement – after the years of deepening discord with Brussels over Northern Ireland that preceded it – is, as The Times noted on Thursday, “far better than many thought possible” is incontrovertible. The deal holds out the prospect that Britain and the EU nations will finally be able to turn the page of the Brexit years and concentrate on major issues such as European security and defeating Vladimir Putin’s ambitions.

Whether Mr Sunak’s success will help reverse the electorally disastrous position his Conservatives are in – 20 points behind the opposition Labour Party – remains to be seen. But perceptions of him as a quiet operator who under-promises and over-delivers, and who finally got Brexit done completely with the Northern Ireland framework agreement, are unlikely to do him any harm.