Summit shames the wrong target

There is a ready answer for critics who claim the Morrison government is shamed because Australia was not asked to speak at Boris Johnson’s virtual summit last weekend to mark the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement on climate change. As Australia is responsible for only a small fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions, it clearly is more appropriate that China, the biggest emitter, be called to tell the world exactly what it intends to do about it. The bar for China is low. The currency of belonging in climate change talks is a public declaration of wanting to be carbon neutral several decades into the future. Further confirmation of good intent comes from declaring a climate emergency. The truth is that when it comes to taking action, it is still a matter for many countries of “look what I say, not what I do”. Collectively, the world is falling well short of the Paris goals. Big pledges from developing countries still are contingent on big financing pledges from the developed world.

With the US excluded because of Donald Trump’s intransigence, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Brazil are being painted as climate laggards. China, responsible for half of the world’s emissions, is allowed to keep increasing its emissions through the coming decade. At the weekend talks, President Xi Jinping fell short of presenting a 2030 climate plan that reflects China’s long-term goal to be carbon neutral by 2060. Instead, Mr Xi promised an incremental strengthening of China’s 2030 climate plan, with no mention of curbing coal.

China has said it will lower its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product by more than 65 per cent from the 2005 level by 2030, increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to about 25 per cent and increase the forest stock volume by six billion cubic metres from the 2005 level. Other pledges to the weekend conference included Britain’s plan to stop financing fossil fuel projects abroad. Canada will lift its carbon taxes to $C170 by 2030. The UN said countries committing to much stronger intentions at the summit included Argentina, Barbados, Canada, Colombia, Iceland and Peru. Far from Australia being the “climate reject”, as Greens leader Adam Bandt claims, Australia’s climate action compares favourably with China’s revised target. The nation’s latest quarterly emissions figures show that, despite a growing economy, Australia’s emissions per capita and the emissions intensity of the economy continue to fall and are at their lowest levels in three decades. In 2019-20, the emissions intensity of the economy was 64.7 per cent below 1990 levels, 43 per cent below 2005 levels, and is projected to fall to 58 per cent below by 2030, essentially what China is proposing. Changes in land management practices in the past decade have contributed to forest cover in Australia increasing faster than in any other OECD country in that period.

One reason Australia’s emissions challenge is greater than that of Mr Johnson’s climate-aspirational Britain is that 39.3 per cent of Australia’s total emissions are generated by the production of exports for overseas markets. This includes the production of liquefied natural gas that will be crucial to helping China, Japan and other Asian nations meet their emissions targets. In the year to June, emissions were 513.4 million tonnes — 3 per cent, or 16 million tonnes, lower than in 2018-19. Regardless of the detail, the Morrison government can expect to continue to be the butt of public shaming over its perceived lack of climate action. But the government is correct that promises of carbon neutrality and declarations of a climate emergency can be easily made but do not mean much without a solid plan to get there. Mr Morrison is right to insist that Australia will decide what action it will take on climate, and when.