Subcontinent’s nuclear flashpoint

The potential consequences of another full-scale war between India and Pakistan could not be more alarming as both sides are armed to the teeth with arsenals that include about 170 nuclear warheads. Global pressure to urge restraint on New Delhi and Islamabad is imperative. But passions are ablaze in both capitals in the wake of the Islamist terrorist massacre of 25 Indian tourists and one Nepali national in Indian-administered Kashmir in April that India blames on Pakistan, followed by retaliatory airstrikes by India targeting nine sites in Pakistan early on Wednesday morning, and achieving restraint will be difficult.

India, ruled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s militant Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, is incensed by the slaughter of the tourists. Responsibility for the worst such attack in years in Kashmir has been claimed by Islamist group the Resistance Front, which New Delhi has linked to Pakistan. Indian fury has been compounded by reports that, before they were executed, male tourists were made to recite Islamic verses to determine whether they would be killed. Passions in Islamabad are just as fierce; Pakistanis are enraged over the Modi government’s revocation of Kashmir’s special administrative status that has prevented outsiders from buying land in the disputed territory. The move is seen in Pakistan as an attempt by Mr Modi to bring in Hindus and change Kashmir’s predominantly Muslim demography.

The territory has been a bone of contention between India and Pakistan since partition brought an end to British rule and both nations gained independence in 1947. Three of the four wars they have fought since have been over Kashmir – one only two months after British rule ended. The last was in 1999 when Pakistani forces penetrated the Line of Control that divides Indian-administered Kashmir and what is known as Azad Kashmir, administered by Pakistan. There also have been other cross-border skirmishes. None of the conflicts to date, however, has been fought against a backdrop of passions running as deeply as they are now, overshadowed by their respective nuclear arsenals. That underlines the need for urgent diplomacy by countries with influence in both capitals to do what they can to warn each side about the grave risks of further escalation.

Pakistan’s government, led by moderate Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, claims its hands are clean when it comes to support for Islamist terrorist groups such as the Resistance Front. On Wednesday, Mr Sharif branded the Indian attacks on Pakistani territory “an act of war” that demanded retaliation. He may believe his country is not a base for terrorism. But evidence such as the November 2008 mass attack by Islamist terrorists who travelled by boat from Pakistan to launch a four-day assault on Mumbai, India’s commercial capital, and countless similar attacks since put the kybosh on Mr Sharif’s denials.

The trouble is that on any given day Pakistan’s civilian government has no clue about what the country’s powerful military is doing. And the generals, especially those who run Pakistan’s notorious spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence, have a bad record of supporting or providing refuge for Islamist fighters, particularly those opposed to India’s hold on Kashmir. Neither is Mr Modi’s Hindu nationalist government a shrinking violet about discriminating against Muslims and making life as hard as possible for those in Kashmir.

Following the attacks early on Wednesday morning on nine targets in Pakistan that India claimed were bases for terrorist groups (denied by Islamabad), India declared “justice had been done”. It emphasised that “no Pakistani military facilities have been targeted” and claimed it had “demonstrated considerable restraint in selection of targets and method of execution”. Its action, New Delhi insisted, had been “focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature”. Mr Sharif said otherwise, insisting that Pakistan had been targeted in an “act of war” and highlighting the fate of civilians killed in the Indian attacks. Pakistani authorities claimed three Indian warplanes and a drone were shot down.

The stage is set for a new conflict between the two nuclear-armed belligerents that likely would have a serious impact on our Indo-Pacific region. It is imperative that other countries do everything possible to make both sides see sense and pull back.

In the late 1990s, Bill Clinton described Kashmir as the world’s most dangerous flashpoint, a tinderbox set to explode. That remains largely unchanged. Pakistan’s failure to rein in Islamist terrorists operating from its territory and India’s attempts to change Kashmir’s Muslim demography are at the heart of the crisis. Both sides, and their total 1.7 billion people, stand to lose badly if they persist with their mutual belligerence.