Strategic shifts emerge in Tokyo
White House officials moved quickly to insist on Monday that Joe Biden’s warning in Tokyo of a US military response if China invaded Taiwan did not change Washington’s decades-old policy of “strategic ambiguity” on the island state. The US President, however, has said virtually the same thing on three occasions since August last year – a point not lost on Beijing.
Mr Biden’s success in mobilising much of the democratic world to support Ukraine in the war it is waging against Vladimir Putin’s invasion has given the US leader renewed confidence as commander-in-chief after his Afghanistan debacle. Ukraine is far from Tokyo. But there are clear overlaps between the crisis the world is confronting in Ukraine and the potential crisis in our region caused by China’s threats to Taiwan. It would be hard to overstate the significance of Mr Biden’s warning of a potential US military response in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Tuesday’s summit of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue leaders showed a valuable unity of purpose. And Anthony Albanese made his international debut with aplomb, pledging strong ongoing support by Australia’s new government for the strategic alliance.
White House officials said Mr Biden “reiterated our commitment under the (1979) Taiwan Relations Act (which followed Richard Nixon’s historic opening to communist China) to provide Taiwan with the military means to defend itself”. But, as he did in August and again in October, Mr Biden made clear in Tokyo his conviction that while the US remained committed to a one-China policy, that did not give China the right to invade and take over Taiwan. Asked if the US would get involved militarily in response to a Chinese invasion after declining to put US boots on the ground in Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, Mr Biden was clear: “Yes, that’s the commitment we made.” He reaffirmed his agreement with the one-China policy. But the idea that China could take Taiwan by force “would just not be appropriate. It would dislocate the entire region and be another action similar to what happened in Ukraine. So it’s a burden (on the US) that is even stronger”. Mr Biden expects that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will not be attempted. But it was important, he said, for world leaders to send a strong message that there will be consequences if Beijing takes such action.
The Prime Minister wisely has signed Australia up to the new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework announced on Monday. The IPEF is an ambitious attempt by the Biden administration to build economic ties with Asian nations after Donald Trump’s misguided abandonment in 2017 of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The IPEF will focus on global issues such as supply chains, clean energy and digital security, and it could provide a new basis to challenge Beijing’s subversive “debt diplomacy” targeted at impoverished small nations. New Zealand, South Korea and Southeast Asian partners Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and Brunei also will join the bloc, which represents about 40 per cent of the world’s economy.
Beijing would be foolish to ignore the significance of the initiative within the framework of the democratic world achieving the unity of purpose to fight back against Mr Putin’s assault on the sovereignty of democratic Ukraine. If Mr Biden’s strategy does not amount to the full-scale abandonment of the policy of “strategic ambiguity” towards Taiwan, as the White House maintains, it does show the US is moving towards a policy of “constructive clarity” that should leave Beijing in no doubt about the risks it faces over its belligerent targeting of Taiwan. China’s menacing conduct towards Taiwan includes recently sending ships to encircle the island. President Xi Jinping also has shamelessly exploited the ambiguity of US policy to intrude into Taiwan’s air space and practise for an invasion.
The abrupt American exit from Afghanistan may have left Beijing with the belief that the US has no residual appetite for war. The mounting cost of US aid to Ukraine also may have encouraged Beijing to believe Mr Biden would be unable to afford a two-front war. His timely warning in Tokyo should disabuse the leadership in Beijing of such assumptions. So should the powerful sense of unity on display at the Quad summit, with Mr Albanese pledging “we have had a change of government in Australia but our commitment to the Quad hasn’t changed”. That is as it should be. The new government is already on the right track showing it is as committed as the Morrison government was to deterring Chinese expansionism. The time for strategic ambiguity is over.