State of Union is nation in search of fresh leadership

Joe Biden did what US presidents always do when, at the end of his State of the Union address to congress, he declared America to be “strong” – thanks, of course, to his achievements since entering the White House two years ago.

Democrats cheered wildly throughout the 7200-word speech. Republicans, having won a small majority in last November’s midterm elections and control of the House of Representatives, heckled loudly, one calling him a liar, in scenes not usually seen during State of the Union addresses.

That bitterness was, however, symptomatic of the contradictions that surrounded Mr Biden’s address and his own warning, early in his speech, when he declared that “uncertainty in US politics is everywhere”. Certainly, the picture he painted of his administration’s successes could not have been rosier or more optimistic. That is what presidential speechwriters are hired to convey. Yet as Greg Sheridan has written, Mr Biden’s core message was one of populist green protectionism and turbocharged welfare.

To his credit, Mr Biden, 80, showed remarkable vigour in presenting a long list of claimed domestic and foreign policy successes, including job creation and his leadership in spearheading Western support for Ukraine. But the contradictions and uncertainty lie less in those achievements than in American voters’ response to them, and whether Mr Biden will, as is increasingly expected, run for a second term next year, despite his age. For the reality is that despite the successes he claimed, American voters, including Democrats, appear unimpressed – uninspired, even – by the strongest US labour market in history, something that would normally provide a major boost for an incumbent president.

Despite all the good news, Mr Biden’s job-approval rating is languishing around 44 per cent. His job-approval rating on the economy is even worse, at 38 per cent, while 41 per cent of Americans say they are worse off than when Mr Biden became president.

Most – 62 per cent – say Mr Biden has accomplished either not very much, or little to nothing. That includes 22 per cent of his own Democrats. And the really bad news for him is that 58 per cent of Democrats say they would prefer a different nominee for president in 2024. Yet the backdrop to his State of the Union address was that it would be used as a test run for an imminent announcement that he will indeed seek a second term in the White House.

There was no overt signal in his speech that he will run. But time and again, as he extolled what he claimed to be the achievements of his administration, he declared “Let’s finish the job” – a clear indication of his intentions.

It is imperative that having in effect laid out his case for another term in the State of the Union address, Mr Biden wastes no time in clarifying whether he will, or will not, run again next year. This address was the high-water mark of his presidency. Certainly, he can claim a solid record of legislative achievement midway through his first term. But as Cameron Stewart writes on Thursday, all his legislative wins are behind him. With Republicans now in control of the House of Representatives, Mr Biden is unlikely to be able to pass any significant reforms through congress, and the lack of enthusiasm – even among Democrats – for him running again should weigh heavily with him as he contemplates his prospects for 2024.

Mr Biden’s achievements in the White House, as outlined in the State of the Union address, have not been insignificant. In foreign policy terms, the success he pointed to in building a solid alliance among the Western democracies to support Ukraine has been considerable. And his warning that “if China threatens our sovereignty, we will protect our country” is of vital importance to Australia. So too were his repeated pledges of support for the world’s democracies against autocracies. Although he did not mention it in his address, he has been commendably strong in warning China against any attempt to invade Taiwan. But it is hard not to conclude, as Stewart writes, that for all the achievements Mr Biden spoke of in his address, he remains, in the view of American voters, an uninspiring leader, past his prime and increasingly unable to garner the popularity needed to win a second term. He would be wise not to ignore the sentiment of voters seeking new leadership in 2024.