State lockdown extension reflects poor management

Extending the lockdown in Victoria for a further seven days has turned what might have been a precautionary inconvenience into a full-blown crisis.

The failure of Victorian authorities to contain the spread of the Covid-19 virus in this instance breaks the recent pattern in several states of short, snap breaks to allow contact tracers to get on top of things.

A continued lockdown for a second week heightens the risk of long-term hardship for workers and businesses and the need for government support to be extended.

The turn in fortune comes as the latest economic data confirms the nation has been building momentum in its economic comeback. Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show the economy rose 1.8 per cent, in seasonally adjusted terms, in the March quarter compared to the December quarter.

The ABS said the rise in growth reflected the easing of Covid-19 restrictions and the recovery in the labour market. The national economy is now bigger and employment numbers higher than before the pandemic.

This is not the case in Victoria, which recorded the nation’s highest March quarter growth but where economic activity is still 0.9 per cent lower than it was at the end of 2019. Victoria’s recovery has stalled and the broader national picture is now at risk.

The way the lockdown is being managed by state officials will only make things worse. Politicians and health officers have been fuelling community fear to justify the harsh measures. Acting Premier James Merlino warned that without intervention the outbreak would “explode”. The state’s chief health officer, Brett Sutton, said the sheer spread of the virus in other countries proved how deadly it could be without taking important steps to curb it. He said there were a dozen countries that had no community transmission going into this year that had now lost control. Those countries would probably not bring it back to a point where they had no community transmission again, he said.

This is an ominous message for a nation that has just entered winter when traditional cold and flu infections are to be expected. The messaging in Victoria is unhelpful and will add an unnecessary psychological load to citizens locked in their houses by government decree.

A sense of perspective needs to be retained. Although new cases of the virus are being reported, the numbers remain small. The decision to include regional Victoria in the initial lockdown was unnecessary and will add to the cost to government for no obvious benefit.

The state government on Wednesday added a further $209 million to its support package. Businesses that are restricted for one week will get a grant of $2500 and those affected for two weeks will get $5000.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has ruled out a reintroduction of JobKeeper for Victoria, but with the lockdown extended he will consider requests for assistance from the state. The federal government must avoid being called repeatedly to bail out state administrations from their own mistakes. But neither must it allow retail politics to stand in the way of taking action when the national interest is at stake.

While the Victorian government must take responsibility for the shutdown, the political cost is increasingly being directed towards the Morrison team. As Paul Kelly wrote on Wednesday, the politics of Covid is changing.

The Victorian breakout shows the new narrative: whenever a state is driven into lockdown, it will blame Canberra for the failure to deliver herd immunity via a better vaccine rollout.

Scott Morrison, Health Minister Greg Hunt and Aged Care Services Minister Richard Colbeck are vulnerable on aged care since this was a declared priority and Covid has infiltrated the Victorian system.

The federal government is increasingly weak on quarantine. Having agreed to let states run quarantine operations in city hotels in the first instance, the federal government is being blamed for failings. Its response to calls for dedicated quarantine facilities has been slow and it now owns a problem that could have been avoided.

City hotel facilities pose difficult quarantine problems regarding neighbouring properties that have in some cases been poorly managed. The federal government is under fire from its own advisers on the issue.

A commissioner of the defunct National Covid-19 Commission, Jane Halton, says the federal government has not adopted a “best practice” national quarantine system. In a report to government, Ms Halton recommended that states and territories reconsider a one-size-fits-all approach and said the commonwealth should consider a national quarantine facility to provide surge capacity.

Victoria has been quick to blame a failure of quarantine in South Australia for the latest outbreak. But this does not adequately account for Victoria’s failings in contact tracing and management of the pandemic.

To limit the political damage, the federal government must assert control and quickly demonstrate that it is competent and able to deliver. The priorities remain vaccines and quarantine, both areas in which the federal government needs to take a greater lead.