Stakes soaring for Putin as Ukraine resists his invasion
Russia’s proposed ceasefire terms are as preposterous as its suggested civilian evacuation routes for Ukrainians, most of which lead east to Russia and north to Belarus. As Vladimir Putin intensified attacks on civilian neighbourhoods, Russia’s Defence Ministry said it would open the humanitarian corridors on Tuesday, listing routes from Kyiv, Mariupol, Kharkiv and Sumy, which have been under heavy attack. The option, understandably, was dismissed by Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk. French President Emmanuel Macron, who as European Union president has kept his lines of communication with Mr Putin open, said: “I do not know many Ukrainians who want to go to Russia.’’
As civilian carnage continued on day 12 of the war, more than 1.7 million people have already crossed Ukraine’s borders in what the UN says is Europe’s fastest-growing refugee crisis since World War II. About 800,000 people have crossed into Poland, 200,000 into Romania and 100,000 into Hungary and Moldova. Tens of thousands of others, including traumatised children, have traversed several countries to apply for sanctuary in Germany and Italy.
Mr Putin’s four preconditions for an end to his onslaught “in a moment’’ were every bit as cynical as his supposed humanitarian corridors. The ceasefire demands would amount to an abject capitulation by Kyiv and have been given the short shrift they deserve by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Dmitry Peskov, one of Mr Putin’s closest aides, said Russia would halt the invasion if Ukraine agreed to “cease all military action (and) change its constitution to enshrine neutrality (constitutionally mandating never to join NATO or the EU)’’. On behalf of Russia, Mr Peskov also demanded Ukraine acknowledge that Crimea (overrun by Russia in 2014 in contravention of every tenet of international law) is Russian territory. Ukraine, Russia insists, must also recognise the separatist Russian-speaking republics of Donetsk and Luhansk (both part of Ukraine) as independent states.
Ukrainians’ ferocious resistance has thwarted Moscow’s hopes of a lightning victory. According to Admiral Tony Radakin, the chief of Britain’s defence staff, intelligence estimates suggest as many as 11,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, and about 44 Russian aircraft, 285 tanks, 985 armoured vehicles and 109 artillery systems destroyed. Reports to the Ministry of Defence note Russian supply lines, especially fuel trucks, continue to be targeted by Ukrainians, slowing the advance of the invading ground forces. Russian aggression could be ramped up, however, Admiral Radakin admits. The Russian soldiers abandoning their convoys and camping in the woods are hardly the cream of Mr Putin’s fighting force. Judging by previous actions in Syria and Chechnya, Russia will turn up the attacks, leading to more indiscriminate killing and destruction.
The longer the war continues, the higher the stakes soar for Mr Putin, and the greater his incentive to avoid losing face and to escalate air and ground strikes until he renders Ukraine capable of only minimal resistance. Despite near-global economic sanctions inflicting serious damage on the Russian economy, it has the military might to subdue its smaller, feisty neighbour.
That eventuality would result in significant, far-reaching consequences. In the event of any sort of Russian takeover, or a division of Ukraine that its people would never accept, Mr Putin could expect an effective, interminable resistance campaign. Europe and the rest of the world would also face serious decisions about bearing the costs of maintaining or stepping up Russia’s isolation economically. Energy security would be a major consideration. Excluding Russia from the community of nations in everything from the G20 to sport would be relatively straightforward by comparison.
Beyond the current conflict, much will also depend on Mr Putin’s next move. The Biden administration has made it clear that NATO would defend “every inch of NATO territory’’ against attack, which includes Poland, Romania, Slovakia and the Baltic States. Time will tell whether Mr Putin would target Ukraine’s small neighbour, Moldova, which has 2.6 million people and was part of the Soviet Union until it declared independence in August 1991.
Moldova, which is neutral, is not in NATO and has a working relationship with the EU. While Russia continues to pile insult on injuries in Ukraine, and can expect stern opposition as it pushes for victory, some of the biggest dilemmas created by Mr Putin’s dream of recreating the dominance of the Soviet Union will not arise until after the bombardments cease.