South Korea faces strategic risks

An immense amount is at stake for South Korea as a key Western ally and bulwark against North Korean and Chinese aggression in the historic weekend decision by the National Assembly in Seoul to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol. He says he will fight the 204-85 vote to remove him from office for “insurrectionary acts undermining the constitutional order” when he declared martial law on December 3 to deal with undisclosed “threats from North Korea”. Mr Yoon, the first South Korean president to be born after fighting in the Korean War ended in 1953, said: “Though I stop for now, the journey to the future I’ve walked for the past 2½ years must never stop. I will never give up. I will stand firm whether I’m impeached or investigated.”

Presidential powers have been transferred to Prime Minister Han Duck-soo while the Constitutional Court considers the validity of the impeachment, but Mr Yoon’s determination to tough it out – and the impact of political turmoil on the country’s stability – is not what South Korea needs given its strategic importance. With polls showing support for Mr Yoon at barely 11 per cent, the upheaval he triggered with his declaration of martial law is likely to exacerbate a crisis that could play into the hands of Pyongyang and Beijing.

The frontrunner in any snap election is Lee Jae-myung, Mr Yoon’s rival and head of the left-leaning Democratic Party that led the impeachment move. A recent poll put Mr Lee’s support at 52 per cent. He could be expected to bring a different flavour to Seoul’s foreign policy by seeking greater engagement with Kim Jong-un’s regime in North Korea, more independence from the US, more so-called balance (kowtowing) to China and a tougher line against Japan.

After the conservative Mr Yoon took office in 2022, Seoul revived its relations with Japan, established deeper ties with the US and created unprecedented military co-ordination with allies such as the US, Japan and Australia. Before his incomprehensible onslaught against South Korea’s democratic constitution with his declaration of martial law, Mr Yoon argued the best way to achieve and maintain peace on the Korean Peninsula and in the region was through strength. South Korea’s security demands better than a continuation of turmoil and uncertainty. Creating circumstances in which the Democratic Party wins government is not what South Korea needs.