South China Sea blockade possible

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s warning that “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow” was part of his sobering keynote address to the Shangri-La Dialogue defence forum in Singapore last weekend. Defence Minister Richard Marles’s meeting with Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe at the summit was an encouraging development. But it indicates a change in China’s approach more than a strategic change on Beijing’s part. As Anthony Albanese said on Tuesday, China needs to remove its tough sanctions on Australian wine, barley and other goods to improve relations with Australia.

As a result of Beijing’s unrelenting militarism and unwillingness to observe the rules-based order, the Indo-Pacific region faced serious challenges, especially in the South China Sea, Mr Kishida said: “Are the rules really being honoured? Neither international law, in particular the (UN) Convention on the Law of the Sea … nor the award rendered by the arbitral tribunal under this convention is being complied with … I have a strong sense of urgency that Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.” Mr Kishida, to his credit, pledged $2.9bn to help Indo-Pacific nations boost their maritime law enforcement capabilities.

Singapore Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen was similarly concerned. He warned of a Black Sea-type blockade of the South China Sea, given China’s claim to more than 80 per cent of the resource-rich waters of Southeast Asia. “The risk of something happening to the South China Sea, as it did in the Black Sea, is not quite theoretical,” Dr Eng said.

Both leaders are correct. General Wei’s assurance that Beijing has a vested interest in freedom of navigation does not ring true given the Chinese Communist Party’s disregard for the sovereignty of countries in the region and its militarism and coercion. As Mr Marles said, China’s reluctance to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “should give us cause for concern”. China, as it contemplates a takeover of Taiwan, could be following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s tactics, including his Black Sea blockade that is having a dire impact on global food supplies.

US Indo-Pacific fleet commander John Aquilino was right. As he told the Shangri-La Dialogue, this is “the most dangerous period, potentially, since World War II”.