Self-interest clouds Delta response

National cabinet again has demonstrated that self-interest rather than co-operation will be the default position of state leaders, between each other and with the federal government. With little indication that the Covid-19 outbreak in Greater Sydney has peaked, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian received no support for calls that supplies of vaccine be diverted from other states to help slow the spread of the Delta virus in her state. Instead, advice was changed to allow a greater interval between the first and second doses of Pfizer to expand the pool of those with partial cover. Going into Friday’s national cabinet meeting, the mood from Melbourne was for Sydney to impose harsher lockdown conditions with a “ring of steel” around the city. Queensland, which closed its border on Thursday, said the priority was its own citizens. With intrastate travel already at a virtual standstill, New Zealand ended its travel bubble with Australia for at least two months.

It is now widely accepted among government that restrictions will remain in place in the nation’s biggest city until October, when seasonal changes naturally reduce the risk of infections and the number of vaccinations increases. Ms Berejiklian now says the task for her state is to “live as freely and safely as possible through to October”. NSW has recorded more than 1700 local coronavirus cases since mid-last month, when the current outbreaks started. Friday’s case count was 136 and more than half of those people had been active in the community for some part of their infectious period. Victoria reported 14 new cases on Friday, taking the total linked to the current outbreaks to 146. The numbers remain orders of magnitude smaller than what is being experienced in other countries.

The challenge ahead is to bring a consistent message to restore confidence in the vaccine rollout. On Thursday, Scott Morrison accepted responsibility for the failings of the vaccine rollout to date and called on the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation to reconsider its advice on the AstraZeneca vaccine for people under 60. His call was supported on Friday by Australian Medical Association president Omar Khorshid, who said now is the time to reconsider Australia’s approach to different variants. “Delta is different and it may be that we need a different approach to our vaccination program in order to recognise that,” he said. Opposition health spokesman Mark Butler accused the Prime Minister of second-guessing the experts. But ATAGI co-chairman Allen Cheng told a Senate committee on Friday the risk-benefit balance for people in Covid-19 hotspots such as Sydney was different and they should consider the AstraZeneca vaccine if no Pfizer was available. Despite this support, Mr Morrison said suppression was the favoured approach in NSW. “The lockdown is the principal tool that will see Sydney through this,” he said.

The bottom line is the vaccine message remains clouded in politics and mired in confusion. This was not helped by comments on Friday by federal Health Department secretary Brendan Murphy, and echoed by Mr Morrison, that the lockdowns were not necessarily related to the vaccination rate. Dr Murphy said the most important goal of the rollout had been achieved. This was the protection of the elderly and most vulnerable who had been vaccinated early. It is correct that the Delta outbreak in Greater Sydney and Melbourne has not taken hold in aged-care facilities, as did early outbreaks in Melbourne. But separating the vaccine rollout from the occurrence of an outbreak will have consequences down the track. The self-interest shown by premiers is unlikely to go away. Once the outbreaks in Sydney and Melbourne have been beaten, the big issue will be what is needed to open state borders and the country to unrestricted travel. A uniform position will be needed on what level of vaccination coverage is sufficient to allow a post-Covid reality. On the evidence to date, the default position of some premiers will be zero tolerance and zero risk.