Russian invasion edges closer

Amid signs Russia was moving closer to launching an invasion of Ukraine, the relocation of the Australian embassy from Kiev to Lviv, a western Ukrainian city further from its Russian border, was a sensible move. Australia is also working on plans to evacuate diplomats from Ukraine if the situation worsens. Russia’s embassy is also downscaling, which has heightened speculation an invasion could be imminent.

The moves come as Joe Biden failed to make headway in a 60-minute weekend phone call to Vladimir Putin, during which the US President warned any attack would cause “widespread human suffering”. It was the US President’s third emergency conversation with Mr Putin. Other leaders, such as Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron, have added to the pressure. But according to the White House there has been “no fundamental change” in the dynamic surrounding the crisis.

On Friday, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the US feared Mr Putin would create a “false flag’’ operation to justify an invasion, which Russia would generate but blame on Ukraine. Action would probably start with bombing and missile attacks, followed by an “ onslaught of a massive force”, Mr Sullivan said. The world seems set to pay a high price for the failure to punish Mr Putin adequately for his 2014 Crimean invasion. Despite his belligerence, some nations still fail to grasp what is at stake. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s refusal to help Ukraine because he does not want work on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia interrupted is damaging the West in confronting Mr Putin. NATO’s failure to deter Russia has, as Tobias Ellwood, chairman of the British House of Commons Defence Committee said, left “the largest, most formidable military alliance in the world operationally benched”. The two anti-Western presidents for life – Mr Putin and China’s Xi Jinping – smell weakness, Mr Ellwood said.

Defence Minister Peter Dutton fears the fallout of a Russian attack on Ukraine would flow through to the Indo-Pacific, emboldening China, distracting the US and driving up energy prices. The implications for Indo-Pacific security if Russia invaded its US-backed neighbour, he said, could include a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The most alarming development in parallel with the crisis, as Mr Dutton said, was “the very publicly declared close bond between China and Russia with Iran on the edges, as is North Korea. Countries of that nature coming together should wake people from a slumber they have been in for way too long”.