Russia-China treaty holds risks

Vladimir Putin’s assertion that “an era of American hegemony has come to an end” is not the first time the Russian President has voiced delusional claims that the West under Washington’s leadership is on its last legs. But following his high-profile re-signing this week with China’s President Xi Jinping of the far-reaching Treaty of Friendship and Co-operation – which forms the bedrock of relations between Moscow and an ever more belligerent Beijing – Mr Putin’s claim demands a strong response. The assertion by Mr Putin, fresh from his Geneva summit with Joe Biden, is deeply significant. The reinvigorated Sino-Russian pact, which covers strategic, military and economic co-operation, Mr Putin says, is designed to take relations between Moscow and Beijing to “an unprecedented height” at a time of deepening global tensions.

Ahead of his belligerent address on Thursday marking the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, Mr Xi extolled the importance of the pact by emphasising the value of “strategic co-operation” between the two former communist rivals. In the address, Mr Xi said China would never allow “foreign forces to oppress or enslave us”. In a swipe at the West he added: “Whoever nurses delusions of doing that will crack their heads and spill blood on the great wall of steel built from the flesh and blood of 1.4 billion Chinese people.” The treaty he and Mr Putin recommitted to this week was originally signed in 2001 by Mr Putin and Jiang Zemin, China’s president at the time.

But its terms and implications have been given new impetus as relations between the US and Russia have reached a post-Cold War low and China is increasingly on the nose and at loggerheads with much of the world. The fact they have chosen to reinvigorate it now highlights its importance. Increasing convergence on international issues such as Moscow’s unabashed defence of China’s brazen territorial aggression in the South China Sea and opposition to Western defence pacts such as the four-nation Quad alliance, which includes Australia, in the Indo-Pacific have already been seen. Beijing’s solid backing of Russia’s lawless behaviour in Crimea and Ukraine also has brought the two countries into what looks increasingly like a united anti-Western front.

At the UN, the two nations have joined forces to oppose what they say are Western efforts to impose a “liberal” character on the rules-based international order. They also have combined to support the principle of noninterference in the affairs of sovereign states. This has been used to defend blatant contraventions of the rules-based world order such as Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and China’s actions in the South China Sea.

A Moscow commentator described this week’s re-signing of the treaty as “an act of friendship against America and its allies”. A redoubling of bilateral co-operation is expected to lead to significantly closer Russian-Chinese military ties. Such links already range from Chinese participation in annual large-scale military exercises to joint bomber patrols over the Sea of Japan, and joint naval exercises, including in the Indian Ocean. Russia’s powerful armaments industry is expected to feature strongly in delivering Mr Xi’s promise that the 2.8 million-strong Chinese armed forces will have their equipment enhanced and modernised. Moscow is providing China with SU35 fighter aircraft and powerful S-400 missiles. While the US is far ahead of Russia and China economically and militarily, Mr Putin’s claims about Washington are wishful thinking.

But after a week of some of the most inflammatory language yet to emerge from Beijing, the re-signing of the treaty underlines the importance of Mr Biden and Western leaders moving ahead with the plan agreed at last month’s Group of Seven summit for an alliance of democracies to confront the threat posed by authoritarian regimes. A reinvigorated Russia-China alliance will heighten global tensions.