Regional dangers rife as Xi pushes Trump on Taiwan

It says much about China’s reputation for state-sponsored spying that ahead of the visit by Chinese Communist Party No. 3 leader Zhao Leji to Parliament House in Canberra on Tuesday, MPs were warned to switch off their phones and internet-connected devices. The warning was triggered by fears that members of Mr Zhao’s delegation could include state security personnel with cyber capabilities.

It followed a warning by ASIO director-general Mike Burgess about a surge in Chinese state-sponsored cyber attacks aimed at infiltrating the nation’s critical infrastructure networks. National People’s Congress chairman Mr Zhao, who met Anthony Albanese, should not be surprised by the alarm – the consequence of being renowned for cyber skulduggery.

China’s relations with Australia have been largely normalised since Labor’s election in May 2022 – a good development reflected in Mr Zhao’s visit. But they remain so sensitive that details of the conversation between the Prime Minister and his visitor are being kept secret. Greg Sheridan writes that Mr Albanese doesn’t think Australians “have any business knowing, even in the broadest sense, what topics he discussed with China’s third most senior leader”, a disdain for public scrutiny that is perhaps “less Donald Trump and more Joh Bjelke-Petersen – ‘don’t you worry about that’ ”.

Caution is needed, especially at present. Chinese leader Xi Jinping, in a rare diplomatic overture on Monday, phoned Donald Trump, making clear the priority Beijing places on “Taiwan’s return to China”. The issue could lead to a major conflict in our region. A Chinese leader initiating a call to a US president is rare. The last time was in September 2001, after the 9/11 attacks.

Mr Xi called Mr Trump amid a row between Beijing and Tokyo over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s defiant warning that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could trigger Japanese involvement in any conflict. As Will Glasgow wrote, Chinese leaders are incandescent with her for “crossing a red line” by “openly sending a wrong signal of attempting to intervene militarily in the Taiwan question”.

That is not what the Japanese leader said. But Beijing’s fury provides context for Mr Xi’s call and the official Chinese account of the conversation in which Mr Xi stressed Taiwan’s “return to China” as an “important component of the post-war international order”. Claiming (a concocted) historical parallel, Mr Xi said China and the US “fought side-by-side against fascism and militarism” during World War II and should now work together to safeguard those achievements. Mr Trump must not fall for such propaganda.

After the call, the US President wrote on Truth Social that he had accepted an invitation from Mr Xi to visit Beijing in April, and he would host Mr Xi for a state visit to Washington later next year. Official Chinese news agency Xinhua claimed Mr Trump affirmed the US “understands the importance of the Taiwan issue to China”. In his social media post, Mr Trump mentioned neither Taiwan nor the diplomatic crisis between Beijing and Tokyo – an omission The Wall Street Journal noted “will rattle US allies in the region already concerned about wavering American commitment”.

He should have been more forthright. Having failed consistently to be explicit – unlike even Joe Biden – in pledging whether the US under his leadership would intervene militarily if China were to invade Taiwan, it is a fair bet, the Journal noted, that “Xi sees a strategic opening to influence Trump’s thinking on Taiwan”.

Like Ukraine, the vibrant democracy deserves defending. And as Sheridan writes, the world must now wait with some apprehension to see what Mr Trump may have conceded to Mr Xi on Taiwan.

Beijing clearly hopes any changes in US policy – such as moving beyond the longstanding policy of strategic ambiguity, supporting “peaceful reunification” – would isolate Taiwan. On the other hand, in a good move last week, Mr Trump approved a $US330m ($511.3m) arms deal for Taiwan, including new aircraft, parts for Taipei’s F-16 fighters and technical and logistics support.

Taiwanese officials said “the sale sends a clear message of support for Taiwan and dispels rumours (Mr Trump) has ‘sold out’ the nation in a potential deal with China”.

For now, Mr Trump is playing his cards close to his chest. His intention, in one of the major foreign policy questions of his presidency alongside Gaza and Ukraine, is the burning issue in Australia’s region.