Red ripple opens political field

The “red ripple” result from the US midterm elections leaves both sides with big questions about the future. Control of the House of Representatives will enable the Republicans to frustrate Joe Biden’s agenda. Whether the result is sufficient to relegate Mr Biden as a lame duck and shorten his term remains to be seen.

For Republicans, the result raises big questions about the cost benefit of sticking with Donald Trump. It could herald the opportunity for fresh blood and new energy at the top of US politics.

The “red wave” tsunami that polls forecast for the party dominated by Mr Trump did not materialise. Many of the candidates the former president hand-picked to ensure what he said he expected would be an overwhelming win for Republicans had a hard time getting across the line in both house and Senate races. They included, notably, Mr Trump’s hand-picked candidate for governor of Arizona, Kathy Lake, whose devotion to him was such that she described herself as “Trump in a dress”.

The setback this represents for Mr Trump as he prepares – or was preparing – to announce his run for a return to the White House in 2024 could hardly be more telling.

Other Trump picks suffered similar difficulty, and while loss of control of the house is a major setback for Mr Biden, the failure of the much-vaunted “red wave” to appear for the Republicans is no less a blow to Mr Trump’s confident expectation that he would win the Republican nomination and the presidency in 2024.

In contrast to the difficulty some of Mr Trump’s candidates were having, one of his likely challengers for nomination in 2024, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, easily won a second term and enhanced his status as a formidable potential presidential candidate who does not carry Mr Trump’s baggage.

The Republicans have pledged to put an immediate end to such key Biden administration initiatives as the house investigation into the Jan 6, 2021, assault on the US Capitol. They have also promised to launch a slew of investigations targeting the business dealings of Mr Biden’s son Hunter and members of his cabinet. There are even plans to launch an impeachment process against Mr Biden, possibly over the rushed US withdrawal from Afghanistan and his failure over illegal migration across the Mexican border.

That amounts to trouble ahead for the Biden presidency. It also presents a challenge. After the Democrats lost control of the house in the 1994 midterms, then president Bill Clinton worked hard to win legislative co-operation across the aisle. He became so popular he won a re-election victory two years later.

Crucial will be how Republicans react to the failure of the “red wave” and the dominant role Mr Trump played in the election by ensuring the candidacy of supporters of his view that he won in 2020 and a second term in the White House was stolen from him. As many as 300 Republican candidates in the midterms were Trump picks. Many did not win. That is likely to have a major impact on his influence.

It is not unusual for incumbent US presidents to lose the first midterm elections after their initial victories. Mr Trump lost 42 seats and control of the house in the 2018 midterms after winning in 2016. Ronald Reagan, Mr Clinton and Barack Obama all won presidential elections by commanding margins but then saw their parties lose ground two years later before going on to win second terms – something Mr Trump failed to do.

With that history as background, the Democrats’ loss of what are projected to end up being a small number of seats does not look too bad. Yet it could be bad enough to convince Democrats that Mr Biden should abandon his declared intention to recontest the presidency in 2024. As could the result of the tight race for control of the Senate, despite projections that Democrats will retain their paper-thin majority.

Mr Biden was right when, on the eve of the midterms, he described them as an “inflection point” in US politics. They should be for both him, as the 80-year-old incumbent, and Mr Trump, as the 76-year-old would-be challenger.

The free world looks to the US for leadership and confirmation of our shared beliefs. Grave challenges such as the war in Ukraine and the threat it poses to the entire world demand resolute, focused leadership in Washington, not a repeat of the bitterness and division opened up by the 2016 presidential election – or a lame-duck US President unable to act decisively.