Queensland needs far more than LNP’s modest agenda

Barring an enormous surprise, David Crisafulli will be Queensland premier this time next week. The nation’s third-largest state needs major economic reform, especially in tackling its surging debt and curbing the runaway growth of the public service, but if Mr Crisafulli is true to his promises, his first term could be one of modest and narrow achievement. He has presented so small a target that he will lack the mandate to put the state back on the rails financially. That serious limitation was reinforced at his very little-very late policy launch on Sunday in Ipswich, traditionally Labor battlers’ land, west of Brisbane, after a million voters have already cast their ballots. The only new policies announced were extra details on tackling youth crime – the LNP’s strong suit – including minimum periods of isolation for youths who assault prison staff, and taking televisions away from detainees who fail to attend school. It was appreciated. Youth crime is endemic and Mr Crisafulli was introduced by Cindy Micallef, the daughter of Ipswich woman Vyleen White, who was fatally stabbed at age 70 in front of her six-year-old granddaughter at a nearby shopping centre in February, allegedly by a 16-year-old boy who was on bail for robbery.

Had Mr Crisafulli put as much effort into economic planning as his “adult time for adult crime” policy, Queenslanders could be more confident about the future. After nine lacklustre years under Annastacia Palaszczuk, and Steven Miles wanting to run everything from petrol stations to school lunches, Mr Crisafulli has set his sights disappointingly low. In the most telling article of the campaign so far, “Shadow of a treasurer: LNP doesn’t rate triple-A”, Jamie Walker revealed on Saturday that the man in line to be Queensland’s next treasurer, David Janetzki, does not have restoration of the state’s triple-A credit rating on his to-do list. Never mind the fact that until 2009, when it was lost under the Bligh government, the triple-A rating was prized by successive treasurers as the hallmark of good fiscal management. Debt is forecast to climb to $172bn over the budget forward estimates, with the interest bill expected to reach $7.7bn by 2027-28. Mr Janetzki’s modest goal is avoiding a credit downgrade. That will take effort, given Labor’s spending sprees and Mr Crisafulli’s impetuous, ill-advised promise in June to implement this year’s Labor budget across the forward estimates. Rating agency Standard & Poor’s warned last week that a debt-funded election spending binge or mismanagement would put the AA+ grading at risk.

Encouraging private sector growth – as opposed to simply hiring more public servants – will be essential to increasing prosperity and revenue. At his policy launch, Mr Crisafulli reiterated his modest tax cut promises. They are abolishing stamp duty for first-home buyers buying a new home, raising the concession to $700,000 for existing homes, and payroll tax relief for general medical practices (which is also Labor policy). Over time, as conditions allow, the LNP should use payroll tax and other reforms to improve the competitiveness of Queensland business.

Under an LNP government, the state would prosper only if Mr Crisafulli throws off the timidity that has characterised his campaign and his time as Opposition Leader. Where difficult decisions are called for, he needs to take the public into his confidence and govern in the best interests of the state. The LNP has crafted a plan designed to get it into office, but not to deliver the type of economic management that should be the bread and butter of an effective centre-right administration. If it wins, that must change.