Putin’s potential turning point in his Ukraine war

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was right when he said during the weekend insurrection by the Wagner mercenary group: “For a long time, Russia used propaganda to mask its weakness and the stupidity of its government. Now there is so much chaos that no lie can hide it.”

He summed up the crisis facing Vladimir Putin following a rebellion led by his former confidant Yevgeny Prigozhin.

It may be that the truce negotiated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko between Mr Prigozhin and Mr Putin means that, for now, the Wagner boss has stood down the heavily armed forces he mobilised to march on Moscow to confront Russia’s military leadership. The sight of sandbags at the gates of Moscow and tanks and troops in defensive positions on the streets leaves no doubt the war the Russian tyrant launched against Ukraine on February 24, 2022 – that was supposed to be over in just days and is now in its 16th month – is threatening the survival of the Putin regime.

As Mr Zelensky said: “Everyone (like Mr Putin) who chooses the path of evil eventually destroys themselves.’’

Under Sunday’s truce, the Wagner boss is supposed to leave Russia and move to Minsk. The 25,000 mercenaries he ordered to march on Moscow will, in theory, be granted amnesty over their rebellion after Mr Putin, in an angry television address, accused Mr Prigozhin of “treason, armed mutiny” and stabbing him in the back. The damage has been done. Perceptions of Mr Putin’s invincibility have been irrevocably diminished. Mr Prigozhin is a thug – his mercenary force has been no less responsible than Mr Putin’s ill-trained army for war crimes in Ukraine – but he has trashed the tough-guy image the Russian despot has built up over 23 years, and his justification for his so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Mr Prigozhin insisted, as he ordered his forces to march on Moscow on Saturday, that there was “nothing extraordinary happening on the eve of February 24 last year” when the invasion began. Ukraine, Mr Prigozhin said, was never going to launch an attack on Russia, the Donbas or Crimea. From Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea nine years ago, there was, he said, never the slightest justification for Mr Putin’s war.

Yet it is Mr Prigozhin’s mercenaries, not Mr Putin’s ill-trained army, who have achieved what few military successes Russia has had in Ukraine over the past 16 months. They include, at huge loss of life, taking the eastern city of Bakhmut and holding the line at Zaporizhzhia. For most of those 16 months, Mr Prigozhin has been an unrelenting critic not of Mr Putin directly but of Russia’s hopeless war leadership, especially Defence Minister General Sergei Shoigu and army chief Valery Gerasimov, both Putin flunkies. His forces, he said repeatedly, were not getting weapons and ammunition they needed. Last week, he was enraged when Russian aircraft bombed his mercenaries on the frontline. That was the spark for his rebellion.

The consequences of the insurrection could be profound. A war launched by the Russian despot, meant to achieve regime change in Ukraine, is now threatening regime change in Russia by harnessing deep anger over the failures of the country’s political and military leadership. Whether the insurrection is the turning point many expect remains to be seen, but the chaos at the heart of Mr Putin’s regime should boost Ukraine as it accelerates its counter-offensive. The fact the Wagner mercenaries, who did much of the fighting for Moscow, have retreated into Russia should open the way for Ukraine’s advances. The West should reinforce support for Mr Zelensky at this critical time, when Mr Putin is against the ropes, to make things even worse for the Russian leader.