Putin pushes NATO to the brink

Vladimir Putin’s arrogant attempt to browbeat the Western alliance over his threat to invade Ukraine demands an unequivocal response. After the Russian President deployed 200,000 troops along Ukraine’s border, his demand that NATO should rule out expansion of the alliance into eastern Europe and abandon military commitments in member states such as Poland, Romania, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – all formerly under the Soviet sphere of influence – in return for him not actually invading amounts to blackmail. NATO submitting to his demand would further inflame tensions over Moscow’s threat to democratic Ukraine’s sovereignty. It also would feed the former KGB colonel’s revanchist dream of re-creating the hegemony of the former Soviet Union over much of central and eastern Europe.

In proposals for “security guarantees” it issued last week, Russia sought a ban on NATO deployments to states that joined the premier Western military alliance after 1997 “unless approved” by the Kremlin. Were NATO to agree to that particularly outrageous demand for Moscow’s tick of approval, it would have to remove troops and missile defence systems from five east European and Baltic states. NATO also would be obliged to renounce a firm commitment it made in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia, another former Soviet state, would be allowed to join NATO in future.

The US and other NATO nations must reject Mr Putin’s blackmail out of hand. And they must make it clear that they mean it when they say they will retaliate forcefully if the Russian despot goes ahead and tries to invade Ukraine. Strong leadership is needed, especially from the White House. It must leave Mr Putin in no doubt about the consequences awaiting him if he does to Ukraine what he did when his troops illegally annexed Crimea in 2014.

Mr Putin’s attempt to portray himself as the hapless target of “hostile acts” by the Western alliance is palpable nonsense given that in 2008 he sent Russian and Russian-backed militia forces into Georgia in contravention of international law. He is not worried that Latvian forces or those from other small Baltic states may march on Moscow. Rather, The Wall Street Journal noted, “his goal is Kremlin hegemony over central and eastern Europe, which have prospered under Western security and economic arrangements”.

The Russian President’s threat to invade Ukraine is also part of a power play to force strategic concessions from the West, such as Joe Biden’s decision in May to waive US sanctions against the company behind the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia. Because of the pipeline, Germany is now overwhelmingly reliant on and beholden to Moscow.

Western leaders rightly have rejected Mr Putin’s attempt to abrogate to himself what in effect would be veto powers over what NATO does in central and eastern Europe in return for not invading Ukraine. Much stronger leadership is needed to deter him from his aggressive course. It is one thing for European leaders to warn, as most have, that Mr Putin faces the toughest sanctions ever if he invades Ukraine. But it is another to find that Germany, because of its reliance on Nord Stream 2, and other European states are less than willing to confront him over his Soviet-era expansionist fantasies.

The US President has warned Mr Putin that invading Ukraine would lead to the toughest sanctions yet. But it is unclear how far he would go. Mr Biden feebly has backed away from meaningful targets such as Russia’s access to the all-important SWIFT global financial clearing system. Mr Biden also has dawdled over providing Kiev’s democratic government with vital military equipment. Mr Putin appears buoyed by the strong pledges of support over Ukraine he got last week from Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Their reinvigorated alliance adds a new dimension to the crisis. Mr Putin’s brazen blackmail over Ukraine indicates growing confidence in the Kremlin that the West, when pushed, will do nothing serious to stop him. That is no surprise as Mr Biden and European leaders have done so little to disabuse him of that notion.