Putin eyes a new world order

Russia’s providing targeting data for Yemen’s Houthi rebels as they attacked Western ships in the Red Sea earlier in the year is further evidence of Vladimir Putin’s drive to reshape the world order. The Russian tyrant’s helping the Iranian-backed group sabotage a major artery for global trade further destabilised the Middle East and raised alarm in Western nations. His malign intentions were also clear at this week’s anti-Western BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan, where his “no limits” alliance with Chinese ruler Xi Jinping dominated proceedings.

Against that background, the decision by Indonesia and Russia to hold their first large-scale naval exercises off the coast of Surabaya next month is concerning for Australia. It may be, as Lowy Institute International Security Program director Sam Roggeveen says, that Russia’s Pacific fleet is in relatively poor shape and “not a major force” in the region’s strategic balance. But, as Amanda Hodge reported this week, the unprecedented exercises are “part of a regional military step-up by Moscow aimed at countering Western influence in the region”. Its ambassador to Indonesia, Sergey Tolchenov, told Russian state media he hoped the exercises would be a biennial event, seen by “both enemies and friends”. The immediate aim of the exercises was spelled out by Putin’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, when he said Moscow and Beijing must work together “to jointly counter interference by forces outside this region in the affairs of Southeast Asia”.

The rapidly expanding BRICS alliance is fast emerging as a major element in Sino-Russian strategic designs in Southeast Asia and beyond. The original BRICS countries were Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Its aims were modest. On show in Kazan was its remarkable expansion to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Indonesia, too, is in line to become a member and part of its objective is to establish a counterweight to Western democratic influence.

Newly installed Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto should be careful about tacitly assisting Putin’s and Mr Xi’s ambitions to assert greater dominance over the international order through bullying nations large and small across the region. The Russian fleet will arrive in Indonesian waters from joint exercises with the navy of Myanmar, another pariah nation with close links to Beijing.

The scope of the Russia-China collaboration was also clear in Kazan when Putin welcomed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, leader of the world’s most populous democracy, and a member, alongside Australia, of the Quad alliance set up precisely to defend the Indo-Pacific against Mr Xi’s and Putin’s designs. Allowing Indonesia to become part of Beijing’s and Moscow’s grand design for regional domination would be a major mistake by Mr Prabowo, who should look closely at the gross Chinese bullying of Indonesia’s near neighbour, The Philippines.