Put election costings on the table

Josh Frydenberg’s fourth budget, laying out the Morrison government’s economic record after the pandemic and setting its compass for the next few years, is open to scrutiny. Anthony Albanese’s budget reply was far more opaque, bereft of detail, but promising compassion, especially for the elderly in nursing homes, and “an economy that works for people, not the other way around’’. Whatever that would mean in practice is not clear. Economic management is the basis for good government. As Margaret Thatcher said: “No one would remember the Good Samaritan if he’d only had good intentions; he had money as well.’’

As voters take stock before the election date is set and the real campaign begins, they are confronted with a strange imbalance. Like most incumbents, Scott Morrison and his team have their record and a platform for the future. But unlike most oppositions, the Labor team is reluctant to present detailed alternative policies. It is open to the Treasurer’s claim it wants to win power presenting itself as a “mini-me of the government”. Voters are entitled to ask what Labor wants a mandate to do and how it proposes to do it.

The battlelines for this campaign, at this stage, are emotional as well as economic. As Paul Kelly writes in Inquirer, the contest is shaping up as “ jobs versus the zeitgeist’’. In one corner, the Prime Minister and Treasurer are offering the most dramatic upsurge in ­ labour market history – with unemployment set to fall to a 50-year low of 3.75 per cent. In the other corner, the Opposition Leader is offering “an economy based on compassion, feminisation, more active government and a repudiation of Scott Morrison’s character’’.

Character, especially that of Mr Morrison, looms as an issue. Disgruntled NSW Liberal senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells handed Labor a campaign gift when she slammed Mr Morrison in the Senate on Tuesday night shortly after the budget, as “a bully with no moral compass’’ and “not fit to be Prime Minister”. A fortnight ago in Newspoll, Mr Albanese drew level with Mr Morrison as ­preferred prime minister for the first time in more than two years. In 2019, Mr Morrison proved a skilled campaigner. In this race, with a lot of ground to make up on the primary and two-party-preferred votes, he will be seeking to turn the character issue back against Mr Albanese. Australians expect prime ministers to be upfront and transparent about their political and economic beliefs. At this stage, Mr Albanese is vulnerable to Mr Morrison’s barb that Labor is “not a small target but a vacant space on economy policy’’. How far, for example, has Mr Albanese shifted from his Socialist Left political foundations?

Labor’s lack of detail began biting on Friday, when Mr Albanese refused to rule out tax increases under a Labor government in order to discharge Australia’s rising debt. The opposition’s promised crackdown on multinational tax avoidance and ending Coalition so-called “waste and rorts” can only go so far, especially as spending promises begin to add up. In contrast with Mr Morrison’s clear-cut promise of no tax rises if the Coalition is returned at the May election, Mr Albanese refused to say on morning television, on three separate occasions, whether he would rule out tax increases. Such evasions will raise doubts in taxpayers’ minds.

Amid widespread concern about the quality of nursing home care, the findings of the royal commission into the sector and Labor’s traditional electoral strength on social policy, aged care is potentially a good issue for the opposition. But it must explain how it would fund improvements. Mr Albanese’s budget-in-reply speech promised to “support the workers’ call for better pay at the Fair Work Commission. And a Labor government will fund the outcome of this case”. So would it back the full 25 per cent rise sought by the Health Services Union? HSU estimates suggest a 25 per cent pay boost could cost more than $20bn over four years, if accompanied by “five-star” quality care.

When the election starting gun fires and the phony war ends, both parties will need to deliver on detail. Facts will count for more than feel-good sentiments.