Privatisation, power and hip pocket drive NSW poll

Voters in Australia’s most populous state, NSW, soon will deliver their verdict on the performance of Premier Dominic Perrottet and decide whether Labor deserves to be returned to government after its longest period in the political wilderness in more than a century. If Opposition Leader Chris Minns is successful, he will deliver to the ALP a clean sweep of government federally and in all mainland states. Slightly behind in the polls, Mr Perrottet is carrying the baggage of long-term incumbency. Mr Minns seems determined to mirror Anthony Albanese’s winning small-target strategy. The wildcard for Labor is that while the party has a slim advantage in the opinion polls, its leader, Mr Minns, is engaged in a fight for survival in his own seat of Kogarah. It is possible that Labor might win the state election but its leader will not survive.

As Brad Norington writes on Saturday in Inquirer, neither side can take comfort from opinion polls that suggest whichever party wins may be unable to form a government majority in its own right. Gaining 47 out of 93 seats in the lower house needed for a majority is likely to depend on the Coalition or Labor securing additional support from independents and others on the crossbench, including the Greens, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party and teals. Mr Minns clearly is alive to this possibility and has been quick to draw a line in the sand for the Greens, vowing there will be no special deals or formal agreement. He has ruled out giving the Greens ministerial positions in return for parliamentary support if his party falls short of a majority. Mr Minns said he would seek guarantees of supply and confidence if necessary from Greens and crossbench MPs but would not allow his policy agenda to be compromised.

Given the state of affairs federally, where the Greens are using their balance of power in the Senate to frustrate the Albanese government’s key agenda, NSW voters must consider carefully the potential cost of placing their vote outside the major parties. This is equally true for the Greens and independents who are working to pull support from the Coalition, as happened with the teals at the federal election last year.

Mr Perrottet is hoping his record of achievement in delivering infrastructure to Greater Sydney will be rewarded. He has proved himself to be a safe pair of hands after a competent Gladys Berejiklian was hounded from office by the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption. But the Premier faces internal divisions and the usual problems of ill-discipline and loss of long-serving MPs that come with an extended period in office. The false characterisation of Mr Perrottet by political and media opponents as being overly religious, a Catholic with seven children, is unlikely to sway voters. Neither will the confected furore over his unwise decision in his youth to attend a fancy-dress party dressed as a Nazi. Voters will be more concerned about whether Mr Perrottet can continue to deliver stable and disciplined government at a time of growing economic pressure across the board.

Economic management remains the key issue, with arguments over whether an existing cap on public sector wage increases of 3 per cent should be maintained. The wage cap and privatisation, which has funded most of the state’s infrastructure program since 2015, is where the political contest lies. The Coalition has raised more than $16bn from the sale of government assets to offset more than $20bn in infrastructure spending, including the WestConnex road project and Metro rail. Further sell-offs are likely including Sydney’s $5bn Western Harbour Tunnel project that is still under construction. Mr Perrottet also has been prepared to spend political capital on reforms such as the mandating of cashless poker machines.

Mr Minns is playing a more traditional Labor hand, criticising government sell-offs and promising to lift wages in the public sector. He presents as a personable and amiable leader who can resist taking the cheap shot. But his political pedigree is deep Labor. Before being elected to parliament in March 2015, Mr Minns worked as a party official and political staffer, and he was a Hurstville City councillor. He is married to a lawyer, Anna, and has three sons. If he succeeds, Mr Minns will return Labor to power after the party’s longest break from office since 1910 following a spectacular implosion at the March 2011 election. Mr Minns says he has learnt the lessons from Labor’s past period in government that culminated in Kristina Keneally leading the party to its worst defeat and a string of former ministers and MPs being found to have acted corruptly.

While state elections are fought on state and local issues, the big themes in the NSW election mirror what is happening everywhere, with cost of living and energy security at the top of the list. Post-Covid, the state faces its own challenges with a forecast budget deficit of $11.3bn and net debt of $78.4bn this financial year. Energy security is a big issue on voters’ minds amid warnings that NSW will be the first state to experience a shortage of supply over demand from 2025 without more investment in dispatchable power. The Perrottet government has squandered its advantage in this area, doubling down on the rush to renewables under Energy Minister Matt Kean. Mr Minns has declared that energy would be the priority for the first 100 days of a Labor government. “We’re really concerned about the stability of dispatchable power for business, industry and consumers,” he said. But Labor’s response, to follow the example of Victoria with a renationalisation of energy infrastructure, is unlikely to deliver results quickly and certainly will cost taxpayers and energy users even more.

Despite a lack of excitement that surrounds the leaders or the election campaign, there is a lot riding on the outcome of the March 25 poll. Mr Minns must demonstrate he has a team that is fit and ready for government. Mr Perrottet must show there is a depth of talent in the Coalition that will allow for a refresh as long-serving MPs retire. Most important of all, voters deserve a blueprint for how both sides plan to enable the state with the nation’s biggest economy to continue to prosper in the uncertain times ahead.