Post-World War II order no longer applies under Trump

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer quoted 43rd US president George W. Bush when he announced a “coalition of the willing” would stand with Ukraine. In speaking out for a democracy in an existential struggle against a tyrant, Sir Keir also stood on the moral high ground resolutely occupied by his great predecessor, Winston Churchill. Sir Keir needs to emulate what Churchill achieved from a position of military weakness in 1940-41, convincing US isolationists that tyranny must not triumph.

So far, so good. Sir Keir has mobilised Europe and friends – with the notable and odious exception of pro-Russian Hungary – to support Ukraine, just days after US President Donald Trump’s calculated display of indifference to Ukrainian independence. France and Britain propose a two-stage truce involving their troops at the later stage. The Poles and Germans acknowledge that Ukraine’s cause is their own and they must arm up. Canada also makes it clear that its support for Ukraine will continue; it already has trained 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers and donated $C20bn ($22.2bn) in aid. “We are stronger when we work together,” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Sunday.

Australia has rightly backed Ukraine since Russia’s invasion. On Sunday Anthony Albanese said: “Ukraine is defending its national sovereignty but it is also defending the international rule of law, and that is why Australia has a national interest in providing support.” Good, but more is needed on top of the $1.3bn in money and materiel supplied so far (notably Bushmaster infantry fighting vehicles). Ammunition is the obvious need, and the sooner the better. While any contribution we make will be marginal, Ukraine will need everything it can get if the Russians decide the door to military victory is ajar. Ministers also need to make it clear that democracies must defend their own. Opposition home affairs spokesman James Paterson pointed out on Monday that in terms of Taiwan, “we wouldn’t want China to misinterpret what is happening in Europe”. Or indeed for Beijing to decide Mr Trump will do great-power deals that ignore the interests of allies – including Australia. Even now this seems inconceivable, but a year ago so would the present circumstances that have led Sir Keir to say: “I do not accept that the US is an unreliable ally.”

Whatever comes next, it is clear that Mr Trump used a staggeringly bad-mannered Oval Office exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to end Europeans’ assumptions that the US taxpayer would always bear the burden of their defence. Perhaps NATO article five – “all for one and one for all” – would still apply if Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to reoccupy the Baltic states, colonies of the former Soviet Union, but European leaders cannot be sure. There may be budgetary backsliding on their commitment to increase defence spending but for now it appears the Europeans recognise they can no longer rely on the US.

As for Ukraine, it faces circumstances far worse than those when US president Joe Biden equipped it with enough weapons not to lose but way short of what it needed to throw the Russians out. When Mr Trump told Mr Zelensky on Saturday (AEDT) “you don’t have the cards right now”, he was militarily correct. Ukraine cannot fight a conventional war without resources from the US – which is also where much of the military equipment Europe promises comes from. Perhaps that was the point of Mr Trump’s brazen bullying – to make clear that Ukraine has no choice but to pay the $US500bn ($804bn) worth of rare minerals for military aid supplied, and receiving some form of US security guarantee in return. That would be a victor’s peace, giving Putin a disgraceful victory in a war he began to return a free people to tyranny. It would set a precedent for continual conflicts between great powers for the spoils of conquest.

Stopping such a new world order is Sir Keir’s second Churchillian challenge. Churchill had to convince an isolationist electorate in the US that it was indeed the last best hope of democracy and had to defeat the Nazis. He won – but only after Germany’s ally, Japan, attacked Pearl Harbor, giving Americans a reason to unite. Whatever happens in Ukraine, we can be sure the rules of the post-World War II order no longer apply while Mr Trump is in office. The Western world may not be as lucky as it was in 1941 when the US electorate accepted that making America great included defending democracies from invasion.

That Mr Trump does not know this history or, worse, does not care bodes ill – at first for Ukraine, and then perhaps for other states to follow.