Post-Kabul, US allies take stock

Joe Biden should not be surprised by the deep anxiety expressed in Taiwan over the potential strategic implications of the shambolic US retreat from Kabul. As Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen warned about the debacle’s possible consequences for even the closest US allies: “Taiwan’s only option (now) is to make ourselves stronger, more united and more resolute in our determination to protect ourselves. It is not an option for us to do nothing … and just to rely on other people’s protection.”

With Taiwan the constant target for Chinese belligerence, Ms Tsai’s concern about Washington’s credibility as a protector highlights what is at stake post-Kabul. She is not alone. NATO nations, under whose aegis the 2001 US-led invasion of Afghanistan took place, are reported by The Wall Street Journal to be “apoplectic” at the Biden administration’s botched withdrawal. NATO leaders are apprehensive the retreat could re-establish Afghanistan as the base for global terrorism and trigger the country’s collapse, causing another mass exodus, which would flood Europe with refugees, as happened during the 2015 Syrian conflict. NATO invested significant blood, sweat and lives in Afghanistan. Tens of thousands of its troops fought alongside the US and more than 1000 died. NATO was in no hurry to leave. But once Donald Trump made the misguided decision to withdraw, and Mr Biden acted to implement it, they had no alternative.

Mr Biden insists the US commitment to its allies including Taiwan and Israel is “rock solid’’. Other nations are concerned, however, that the Kabul debacle represents a deep malaise within US leadership. With Beijing’s propaganda machine spinning a narrative that Afghanistan shows the US betrays its allies, he needs to show he means what he says. As Tony Abbott told Paul Kelly in The Weekend Australian: “The fall of Kabul and the return of the Taliban is not just a catastrophe but a strategic watershed as well. How much fight is left in Biden’s America? More than currently seems … but that’s the question that all US allies must now ponder and adjust to accordingly.” Mr Biden could start the long haul back to credibility by making good on his promise to devote substantially more strategic resources to the Asia-Pacific. Doing so, he said, was part of his rationale for the Kabul withdrawal. Dithering would further compound the apprehensions of allies alarmed by the ignominy of the Kabul chaos and what it revealed about US leadership.