PNG must put its house in order

Papua New Guinean Prime Minister James Marape, who has been in Australia seeking foreign investment to advance multibillion-dollar resource projects, has the right approach in seeking to advance PNG’s independence. As he said in Sydney: “Fifty years ago it was a Labor government under Gough Whitlam and the Pangu government preparing PNG for political independence. My conversation is on economic independence.”

His nation faces serious challenges. According to a new UN Population Fund study, PNG could have a population as high as 17 million – almost double the official estimate of 9.4 million people. If so, PNG’s per capita income is far lower than the official figure of $3230. Most of the growth is believed to be in remote Highlands provinces where education levels and economic opportunities are limited, people survive through subsistence farming and violence is rife. The economic problems are a concern to Australia, its nearest neighbour, which administered PNG until self-government in 1973. It achieved independence in 1975.

The recent UN population study was funded by Australia and used satellite modelling, housing data and household surveys to arrive at the result. Mr Marape doubted the result, believing the accurate population figure was 10 million to 11 million. Even that estimate, he said, was “too high for the size of my economy”. Job availability and the resources sector were too small, he said. “I cannot adequately educate, provide health cover, build infrastructures and create the enabling law-and-order environment (the country needs),” he said. Services are inadequate, especially outside Port Moresby.

PNG’s predicament is a challenge to Australia’s foreign aid budget, which is contributing about $600m to PNG this year and has provided $1.2bn in support since 2019. In view of PNG’s economic vulnerability, it is vital it avoids China’s debt-trap diplomacy that has engulfed other states such as Sri Lanka, Tonga, Samoa, Vanuatu and several African countries.

Mr Marape has shown an appreciation of geo-strategic challenges in the Asia-Pacific. “Find me an ability to be strong on my own feet, I don’t need to depend on Australia for aid and I could assist in regional security, regional diplomacy, regional stability,” he said in Sydney. Given his uncertainty over PNG’s precise population, determining an accurate figure is an important starting point to allocate resources. Under some conditions, a growing, youthful population can encourage growth, but only if infrastructure and investment in productive industries are sufficient to generate revenue and job opportunities.

Paul Barker, executive director of PNG’s Institute of National Affairs, told The Australian that the UN population estimate reflects the situation on the ground in PNG, where unemployment and a weak state were feeding community unrest. Vast areas of the country were effectively ungoverned, he said. For good reason, given the shared history between Australia and PNG, the geographic closeness and mutual strategic interests, the situation should help shape Australia’s foreign aid program.