Parties start parliamentary year locked in a dead heat

For good reason, Scott Morrison has chosen to quote Chris Richardson from Deloitte Access Economics in his National Press Club speech on Monday: “You’d rather be here than almost anywhere else.’’ Perth’s five-day lockdown after a quarantine hotel security guard tested positive to COVID-19 is a reminder that the virus will remain a major issue for all governments this year. Rolling out the nation’s vaccination program will present fresh challenges. With more than 90 per cent of jobs lost during the pandemic restored, and households and small businesses repaying more than 80 per cent of the loans deferred at the height of the pandemic, the Prime Minister returns to parliament on Tuesday with the wind at his back. Across the despatch box, Anthony Albanese will be battling to assert authority in opposition ranks. But with a possible election this year, or early next year at the latest, the race for supremacy between the major parties is closer than many recognise.

Newspoll on Monday shows that despite the Coalition’s 42-36 per cent lead on the primary vote, Labor is competitive, as the main beneficiary of Greens preferences. The vital two-party-preferred vote is 50-50. Mr Albanese’s potential rivals will note he trails Mr Morrison 29-57 as preferred prime minister, a margin that will prompt some of them, and opposition backbenchers in marginal seats, to wonder what difference a change of leader might make. Much will depend on Mr Albanese’s performance in the five sitting weeks between now and the end of March. The revelation of Labor’s new industrial relations policy in the next fortnight will test its economic credentials. Lifting productivity to enable stronger growth and encourage businesses to hire new staff warrants workplace relations reforms, from both major parties.

One of the government’s big challenges will be maintaining living standards after JobKeeper ceases at the end of next month. The program had helped 3.5 million Australians through the pandemic, at a cost of $80bn. While the resumption of international travel is not yet on the horizon, it is vital for the economic recovery that state borders remain open. As Josh Frydenberg told the ABC on Sunday, Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce told him that the hard border closure with NSW imposed by Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk after Christmas resulted in Qantas and Jetstar cancelling 1500 flights and 200,000 passenger bookings. While Treasury is considering new, post-March support packages for struggling industries, these must be “proportionate, timely, scalable and targeted”, as Mr Morrison has promised. As he says: “You can’t run the Australian economy on taxpayers’ money forever.’’

With federal and state government debts on track to more than double to $1.75 trillion in the five years to 2024, Mr Morrison, sensibly, is planning to focus on “the fiscal discipline necessary to ensure that we do not overburden future generations and continue to spend taxpayers’ money wisely’’. Retiring debt while interest rates are low will help restore public finances and ensure the nation is better positioned to respond to future economic crises. That chance must not be wasted.

Policies to respond to climate change while minimising hardship and managing Australia’s fraught trading relationship with China will also be key topics for policy-makers and debate. With the major parties level pegging, Mr Albanese’s leadership under pressure and issues at the heart of the national interest at stake, question time should be compelling.