Palaszczuk at crossroads as tensions unsettle her party

Annastacia Palaszczuk is either winding down or supremely confident Labor’s complex leadership election rules would protect her in the event of a serious move against her by her party. On Saturday, the Queensland Premier jetted off for her second overseas holiday this year, which was only announced by her office shortly before “wheels up’’. To where, exactly, the public has not been told. But exiting the scene at such a crucial time is an extraordinary move, however long the holiday was planned.

Whatever voters think, their elected Labor representatives will not be the only Labor figures determining whether Ms Palaszczuk or her potential rivals – acting Premier Steven Miles and Health Minister Shannon Fentiman, both leading members of the dominant Left, or Treasurer Cameron Dick, from the Right – lead the government to the election, due on October 26 next year.

As Michael McKenna and Sarah Elks reported on Saturday, Labor sources say the government is “now in that zone’’ where Ms Palaszczuk’s future is a “substantial topic of conversation’’. She “has made it clear she’s staying’’. And for what it’s worth, her colleagues and staff say her partner, flashy surgeon Reza Adib, “likes getting dressed up’’ for all those red carpet events.

Legislative Assembly members, especially in marginal seats, are worried about the government’s poor showing in three opinion polls this year and about plummeting support for Ms Palaszczuk. This is also reflected, reportedly, in internal Labor polling. Speculation about the leadership was heightened after the government suffered a disastrous week in parliament, with Ms Palaszczuk blamed for mishandling controversial youth crime measures.

Under Labor’s convoluted leadership system, however, it would take three separate votes to prise Ms Palaszczuk out – and only after at least 50 per cent of the 52-strong parliamentary caucus petitioned ALP state secretary Kate Flanders for a ballot. Ballots would then be held, among members of the state parliamentary party, of eligible grassroots party members and of affiliated unions. For Ms Palaszczuk, who won her third election in 2020, retaining the support of left-wing union powerbroker Gary Bullock, the Brisbane-based national political director of the United Workers Union, and state ALP president John Battams, a former Queensland Council of Unions president and Queensland Teachers Union general secretary, will be vital.

Mr Miles tried to douse the leadership speculation at a press conference on Sunday, but would not directly answer questions about whether Ms Palaszczuk would “definitely” lead Labor at the next state election. Ms Fentiman, a former lawyer and advocate for the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, has had a strong rise in the party since she was first elected to parliament in 2015. Mr Dick is the government’s most experienced economic performer. But the state’s resources sector has warned that his three-tier coal royalty scheme – which includes the highest mining tax rates in the world – has undermined the viability of mines and threatened future investment in the state. Mr Dick escalated the tensions last week, threatening to revoke BHP’s mining leases if it did not keep investing in Queensland. In June, the tax regime delivered a record $12.3bn surplus, despite big growth in the public sector workforce and wages bill.

Should voters be looking for a bigger change in 14 months, the LNP would need to win an extra 14 seats to dislodge Labor. Opposition Leader David Crisafulli is working hard. As Ms Palaszczuk holidays overseas, she might reflect that her government’s problems over health and youth crime were of its own making, through poor policy work. So are her leadership problems, which reflect wider dissatisfaction with the government’s performance.