Pact with Tuvalu in the balance

Given Tuvalu’s population of just 11,000, the Pacific microstate country’s newly elected 16-member parliament needs to be realistic about the country’s place in the world and the threats it faces. That includes a clear understanding of China’s ambitions in the region and the danger they pose to even the smallest countries. The new administration would also benefit from focusing on the importance to Tuvalu of the “Falepili Union” security pact it concluded with Anthony Albanese at November’s Pacific Island leaders meeting. Mr Albanese described the pact – named for a Tuvaluan word for good neighbourliness and mutual care and respect – as “without doubt the most significant agreement between Australia and a Pacific Island nation”.

With Funafuti atoll, capital of Tuvalu’s nine islands located midway between Australia and Hawaii, projected to be largely inundated by rising sea levels from 2050, the pact allows a generous “special pathway” for the country’s entire population to gradually resettle in Australia. It would be hard to imagine a better deal for Tuvaluans. The pact also, however, gives Australia a crucial veto over Tuvalu’s future security relationships, which emerged as a key issue in the election. Tuvalu has had a longstanding relationship with Taiwan. Along with the Marshall Islands and Palau, it is one of only three Pacific Island states that continue to have diplomatic relations with Taipei. But China, unsurprisingly, has been seeking to undermine that relationship, as it previously did in getting Nauru and Solomon Islands to swap sides and link up with Beijing. In Tuvalu’s election, Kausea Natano, the former prime minister who did the Falepili Union deal with Mr Albanese, lost his seat. Those lining up to replace him want it renegotiated or scrapped amid signs the future of Tuvalu’s relationship with Taiwan is in the balance.

Former prime minister Enele Sopoaga, who was re-elected and is eyeing a return as government head, opposed the pact with Australia, arguing it should be put to a referendum. The ensuing uncertainty has raised questions about the future of the pact and whether China has been playing a subversive role, as it has elsewhere across the Asia-Pacific, seeking to displace Taiwan and gain what would be an important strategic foothold. When the new parliament meets, failing to ratify the Falepili Union would open up another opportunity for Beijing to gain further regional influence. Tuvalu’s MPs need to learn from other small nations that allowed themselves to be beguiled by Beijing’s Belt and Road blandishments, only to be ensnared in debt traps.