Outbreak exposes failures in leadership and systems

Victorians are deflated as the state’s number of COVID-19 cases push beyond 10,000 and deaths climb to 112. The state has passed the halfway mark in a six-week lockdown and new restrictions are imminent because the coronavirus won’t submit to efforts to control it. In the past seven days, the number of Victorian infections has jumped by 43 per cent. For weeks, the Victorian government has said the economic and social costs of shifting into full stage four restrictions were too great. Now, as John Ferguson writes, “the retrieval mission has all but failed”. The state’s second wave is mainly due to human error, but it also has exposed poor preparation by health officials, under-investment in hospitals and failings in aged care. Making matters worse are sub-optimal executions of pandemic basics, especially in testing, tracing and public messaging.

The last point may be a surprise to readers, given Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’s assuredness and command of detail at the lectern in daily briefings. Yet are his media conferences helping to change behaviour and improve compliance? Are these hour-long daily briefings a masterclass in obfuscation or soliloquies in crisis theatre? The Premier’s skill of bending words like Beckham, around a pesky press pack, to connect with the #IStandWithDan crowd is counter-productive. He simply deflects and confuses. Hey, look over there! It’s the people not being home when virus tracers knock. Or “I would not let my mum be in some of these places”, Mr Andrews said of aged-care homes. It’s dispiriting that six months after Canberra banned travellers from China, and the pandemic got real, key messages are not getting through, including to ethnic communities, and on basic matters such as wearing masks in public in the southern hotspot or staying at home if infected.

Mr Andrews, like his locked-down citizens, is in a tight spot. Faster dispatch times for testing and tracing aptitude akin to the other states would restore faith in Victoria’s ability to get on top of outbreaks. There is goodwill from around the country and no lack of offers of support, whether medical workers or equipment. Beneath the surface there may be tension between governments from time to time, but nothing that would really derail proper policy responses. Political blame games won’t wash with the public. Nor will parochial oneupwomanship. At this stage, only results matter. As the rest of the country watches in dismay, rather than with smugness, Victoria holds the key to confidence and therefore economic revival across the country.

Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy told a Senate committee on Thursday Victoria’s deepening contagion would significantly extend the nation’s slump. It prompted the fiscal agency to issue new forecasts of higher unemployment and weaker output growth, only a week after the budget update. As we noted, Treasury’s estimates were based on rosy views of virus suppression and easing of border and social restrictions; unemployment was expected to peak at 9.25 per cent in the December quarter. Dr Kennedy told the Senate hearing more than three-quarters of Victorian firms now are expected to remain on JobKeeper beyond September. Another survey showed one in 10 firms receiving government help would fail if support were taken away. An even higher proportion would cut investment, orders or staff without that assistance.

Plainly this is a delicate moment for engineering economic revival, as well as in fighting COVID-19. The last thing we need is for our leaders to bicker, let alone panic. As we know, going harder at the coronavirus will take a big toll on sentiment and halt recovery. But, as Scott Morrison says, not containing the spread of the virus also will hurt the economy. It’s a war on two fronts. The government has more fiscal firepower at its disposal, for sure, but that maxi approach changes the dynamics of the economy and the psychology of voters and business. It’s fundamental that Mr Morrison and Josh Frydenberg resist baking into the budget the emergency spending measures and welfare. Not because of any ideological obsession per se but, as inveterate spendthrifts Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard proved, because stimulus measures and trophy infrastructure projects can lead to enormous waste and roll on for years after a crisis passes.

The Prime Minister has called for more public vigilance in confronting COVID-19. Some days we win, some days we lose, he said on Friday, but the coronavirus will be with us for some time and we need to get used to living with it and dealing with outbreaks. While we were doing better than most nations, Mr Morrison said, we had to be careful not to slip into thinking that Australia had “golden immunity” to the virus and become complacent. That means our nine governments need to work together, learn the lessons at hand, and share information and resources as needed. But it also requires leaders to take responsibility for their actions and inactions. Punting issues to inquiries, dodging hard questions from reporters, handballing problems to others and preaching to the choir does not pass for accountability, let alone leadership — regardless of what factional bosses, opinion pollsters and focus group conveners may now be telling them.