Opening up can be difficult too

The evidence from overseas is now clear that the worst health outcomes from the pandemic increasingly are being felt by the unvaccinated. Armed with this knowledge, governments at all levels must continue to do everything they can to encourage as many people as possible to get vaccinated before restrictions are removed. This said, there is no escaping the fact it is neither politically nor economically possible to keep the economy on ice and people confined indefinitely. As Acting Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce said on Monday, the country’s road map to reopening cannot be held back by Australians who choose to not get vaccinated. With Victoria approaching a world record for time spent in lockdown, the politics of Covid is changing. Tuesday’s Newspoll results show more people, 53 per cent, still are concerned about moving out of restrictions too early, resulting in poor health outcomes, than are worried about acting too late at the expense of the economy, 42 per cent. But the trend is clearly towards opening. When the same question was asked in April last year, the result was 72 per cent were more worried about opening up than the 24 per cent concerned about acting too quickly. On top of the two-party-preferred result showing the Coalition trailing Labor 47 per cent to 53 per cent, the poll results raise issues of concern for Scott Morrison. The Prime Minister is still preferred as leader over Anthony Albanese, 47 per cent to 35 per cent. But this is a big turnaround from the 56 per cent to 30 per cent poll result in April last year. The rating of Mr Morrison’s performance handling coronavirus has slumped from 85 per cent positive in April to 48 per cent positive today.

Among state leaders, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’ rating for handling the pandemic well has dropped from 85 per cent to 63 per cent. NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s rating for handling the pandemic has fallen from 77 per cent to 56 per cent. Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s rating has fallen from 72 per cent to 67 per cent.

Mr Andrews and Ms Berejiklian have warned in recent days that residents of the two most populous states must expect a rise in Covid-19 cases and possible fatalities when restrictions are eased. Mr Andrews said Victoria’s health system would face intense pressure but he insisted the state would be able to pass through the reopening spike to a position where it could live with the virus. “We cannot perennially or permanently suppress this virus,” he said.

Ms Berejiklian cited the Doherty Institute modelling underpinning national cabinet’s plan for reopening when she said Australia needed to prepare to see high case numbers when her state reopened after reaching 80 per cent. “I say to all my colleagues that even when you get 80 per cent double dose and start opening up, you will get Covid-19 in your community. So please accept that and get ready for that,” she said on Sunday. “Numbers might be higher than we have ever seen. In fact, the Doherty report predicts that the case numbers that we will see are likely to be the highest cases we have seen in Australia.”

The Doherty Institute on Monday detailed the results of revised modelling that showed if restrictions were eased at 70 per cent vaccination with thousands of cases in the community, there would be a spike in infections to tens of thousands of people. As coverage increased beyond 80 per cent for double-vaccinated people, the epidemic came under control. As a result, Doherty recommended that case numbers continued to be strongly suppressed until 80 per cent coverage was reached.

There is a lot riding politically on what happens to case numbers and health outcomes when restrictions are eased, and greater domestic and international travel is resumed. If things go badly, leaders will be punished for acting too quickly and putting voters in danger. If things go well, the pandemic will recede quickly as an issue for leaders who have been brave enough to face it. State leaders outside NSW and Victoria also will have a lot riding on how things go. Whatever the outcome, however, the best strategy for all leaders remains to get as many of their citizens fully vaccinated as quickly as possible.